Stormin in Norman
Fansided

Oklahoma football: One player, one problem, one big prediction

By Chip Rouse

Oct 30, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Danny Stutsman (28) causes Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Kaylon Geiger (10) to fumble during the first half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 30, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Danny Stutsman (28) causes Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Kaylon Geiger (10) to fumble during the first half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

If you rely on Oklahoma football history alone, the Sooners and their fans should be feeling fairly confident about the OU-Texas Tech matchup on Saturday night in Lubbock.

Oklahoma heads to Texas Tech riding the momentum wave of a big rivalry win over Oklahoma State to earn bowl eligibility and a 10-game win streak against the Red Raiders.

Anyone who has followed the Sooners this season, though, knows that history really hasn’t been Oklahoma’s friend this season.

Before the 2022 season, for example, OU had not lost three games in a row since 1998. The Sooners had won nine straight games against West Virginia and had not lost to the Mountaineers as a member of the Big 12, but that ended with a 23-20 loss at WVU this season. And the 14-time Big 12 champions had not won fewer than 11 games in a complete season since 2014.

So Oklahoma’s 10-game win streak against Texas Tech doesn’t hold much weight this season. The Sooners have been anything but predictable in 2022. We’ve seen glimpses of what they can be, but it always seems to regress back to who they really are. And that clearly isn’t any resemblance to who they have been.

Like OU, Texas Tech is also coming off of a win last weekend, a hard-fought 14-10 win over Iowa State, that makes the Red Raiders bowl eligible.

Somehow OU is a 2.5-point favorite going into a hostile environment where the Sooners are 9-4 all-time and against a team that is 5-1 at home this season. The Red Raiders’ only loss at Jones AT&T Stadium this season was on the short end of a 45-17 score to Baylor.

Oklahoma had four interceptions last weekend against Oklahoma State. Texas Tech quarterbacks have thrown 16 interceptions this season. Moreover, the Red Raiders have a turnover margin of minus-five to OU’s plus-seven. Winning the turnover battle would be a huge boost to the Sooners’ chances for a win at Texas Tech

Here is one player and one problem that could have a lot to say about who wins on Saturday and a prediction of what will happen:

Player

Eric Gray is having a monster season and has carried the Oklahoma run game, which leads the Big 12 and ranks 13th nationally. The Sooners average 217.2 rushing yards per game, and the former Tennessee transfer is a major part of it. Gray averages 109.4 yards per game, 13th-best nationally, along with 11 touchdowns. It’s not just his running ability that makes the Sooner senior so dangerous, though. He is an equal threat catching the ball out of the backfield in the OU passing game. (31 catches in 2022 for 219 yards.

Gray has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of the last five, including 211 yards against West Virginia, and seven of his 11 games this season. The Sooners need another strong performance from Gray to bring balance to the offense and give Dillon Gabriel and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to opportunity to mix and match with running plays and run-pass options to open up passing opportunities and shots downfield with Marvin Mims.

Problem

Last weekend at home against in-state rival Oklahoma State, OU failed to make a first down or run more than three plays in each of their final six possessions. The Sooners converted just 1 of 14 third-down attempts against the Cowboys, and they were just 1 of 11 the week before against a not-very-good West Virginia team. That’s 2 of 25 on third down in the past two games, a pathetic eight percent. Oklahoma cannot have that kind of ineptitude against Texas Tech.

The Sooners’ ability to stay on the field and sustain drives will be necessary to shorten the game, keep the quick-strike Texas Tech offense on the sidelines and, most important, give the OU defense time to rest and recover. Oklahoma has the lowest time of possession of any team in the Big 12. The Sooners’ up-tempo offensive style leads to a lower time of possession than most but also makes for quick possession exchanges, especially when the offense goes three-and-out as many times as OU has in the past two games.

Prediction

Turning to history, again, the last 12 games between Oklahoma and Texas Tech have been high-scoring affairs. The Sooners have scored at least 38 points in all 12 games. Since 2012, Oklahoma is 84-6 when it scores more than 35 points.

The OU defense was aggressive and made big plays when it had to in the win last weekend over Oklahoma State. If the defense can sustain that level of play in a hostile environment at Texas Tech and the offense can find ways to stay on the field land sustain drives, the Sooners will have a good chance to win. For whatever reason, Oklahoma has had a difficult time playing complementary football this season. I’m riding with history repeating itself on Saturday night and in a good way.

Oklahoma 35, Texas Tech 31

Home/OU Football