Oklahoma football: One player, one problem, one big prediction

Bedlam is an appropriate description for the Oklahoma football battles with its in-state rivals, the Oklahoma State Cowboys over the years. Although the Sooners have dominated the series in terms of overall wins, the games themselves have been hard fought and generally high-scoring slugfests.

If West Virginia-Pittsburgh didn’t already have claim to the billing “Backyard Brawl” that could equally apply to the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State rivalry, which could be coming to the end of a long century-plus run the next year or two or when the Sooners leave the Big 12 for the SEC.

The Sooners and Cowboys will face each other for the 117th time on Saturday with Oklahoma looking for its 91st win in the series and seventh in the last eight meetings.

The last time Oklahoma lost at home to Oklahoma State was in 2014, when Tyreek Hill returned a punt (the second of two OU punt attempts on the same series) 82 yards for a touchdown with 48 seconds remaining to force overtime, and the Cowboys prevailed in the extra session, 38-35.

We’ve boiled it all down for you to one player, one problem and one big prediction:

One player

Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders is expected to play on Saturday against the Sooners. Sanders, in my view, holds the key for both teams. He is a dual-threat quarterback, which has always been a problem for OU defenses.  The unknown issue with Sanders on Saturday is his health. He’s been battling shoulder issues all season and missed all of one game (a 37-16 loss at Kansas) and parts of two others, including a 48-0 blowout loss at Kansas State.

The 6-foot, 1-inch, redshirt-senior is 1-1 against Oklahoma is a proven winner. He ranks third in the Big 12 this season with 2,261 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, but Sanders is next to last among Big 12 starters with a completion percentage of 58.5 percent. He ranks first among Big 12 QBs, however, with 349 rushing yards.

Sandesr said this week that he is absolutely going to play against the Sooners. His presence alone presents a concern for Oklahoma. The Cowboys are a combined 35-13 overall and 23-11 in the Big 12 in the four seasons he’s been on the field for OSU.

One problem

It may not seem like it, but Oklahoma has been done fairly well in third-down possessions this season. The Sooners 43-percent success ranks 41st among FBS teams. They’ve had up-and-down games in that department — in some games they’ve been very, very good, but in others, like last weekend at West Virginia, very, very bad. Against West Virginia, OU converted just one of 11 third-down attempts.

It’s not a coincidence that in the game Oklahoma has won this season it has been able to sustain drives by converting on third down. And the reverse has been generally true in games the Sooners have lost. The one exception was a 10-of-15 conversion rate in their last home game in a three-point loss to Baylor.

The Sooners need to be better than good on Saturday night against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are ninth-best in the country this season in getting third-down stops. Opponents have only been successful 29 percent of the time on third-down attempts against the Cowboy defense.

One prediction

A good number of pundits and college football experts have taken exception to the 7.5-point spread the oddsmakers have established in favor of Oklahoma in this game. It’s not that they don’t think the Sooners can win this game, rather that if OU is to win, it will be closer than that. It’s also worth pointing out that OU has been favored in every game it has played this season except one (Texas), but only has a 5-5 record to show for it.

Aside from bragging rights and the personal importance of beating your in-state rival, this game means more to Oklahoma than it does to Oklahoma State. The Sooners need this win to become bowl eligible and to assure at least a .500 record in the regular season. Since 2001, Oklahoma State has won twice in Norman in 10 games (2001 and 2014). I’m picking the Sooners to win and cover on Senior Night and with a host of highly targeted recruits in attendance.

Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 34