Oklahoma football: One player, one problem, one big prediction
By Chip Rouse
Oklahoma football heads east this weekend with an undefeated record against West Virginia in its home building and in a game the Sooners can’t afford to lose.
The Sooners (5-4, 2-4) are just one game ahead of West Virginia in the Big 12 standings. That one game is all that separates OU and the Big 12 basement, something that is thoroughly unfamiliar territory for Oklahoma football.
Oklahoma is seeking a sixth 2022 win on Saturday that will make the Sooners bowl eligible, while one more West Virginia loss will eliminate the Mountaineers from postseason consideration. A win on Saturday by the Sooners will also assure OU of no worse than a breakeven regular-season record.
The Sooners also want to finish the season strong and on a high note they can build on toward a brand new season in 2023. And that starts with a win over struggling West Virginia on Saturday.
Player
After serving up just one interception in OU’s first eight games of 2022, Dillon Gabriel threw an uncharacteristic three last weekend against Baylor. Although all three were tipped balls, they still fall on Gabriel’s shoulders and something he is anxious to rebound from with a strong performance at West Virginia.
Unfortunately — and, frankly, unfairly — Gabriel has drawn the brunt of the criticism for Oklahoma’s poor 2022 season. He’s not a particularly flashy or vocal quarterback like several of his OU predecessors at the position. Instead, Gabriel’s demeanor doesn’t get too high or too low, he makes good decisions with the ball the majority of the time and he is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12. Sooner fans tend to compare him to the Baker Mayfields, Kyler Murrays and Jalen Hurts of days gone by and expecting the same result, even though the conditions are not the same.
Look for Gabriel to take advantage of a West Virginia pass defense that ranks 119th in the country in the country, allowing 277 passing yards a game — yes, even worse than Oklahoma’s (74th) — and have a big day on Saturday.
Problem
A week ago against Baylor, Oklahoma held the Bears to just 4 of 13 third-down conversions. The Sooners are going to face another major third-down challenge against West Virginia. The Mountaineers rank 34th in the country in successful third-down conversions. West Virginia has been successful in 45 percent of its third-down possessions. And here’s the real problem: The Sooners rank 102nd nationally in defending third-down conversions.
West Virginia not only has a stellar third-down success ratio but has been even better when it goes for it on fourth down (12th best in the country). Given Baylor’s high success rate, going three-for-three on fourth-down attempts against Oklahoma last weekend, the Sooners would be best served by taking care of business against the Mountaineer offense on third down and avoiding fourth-down, go-for-it situations.
Prediction
West Virginia sits at the bottom of the Big 12 standings. But let’s not forget that Oklahoma is just one game better in the conference standings. The Mountaineers one win in the Big 12 was a shootout with Baylor, so they are very capable of beating the Sooners. But it won’t happen on Saturday.
Oklahoma 38, West Virginia 28