Oklahoma football: One player, one problem, one big prediction

The Oklahoma football game with Baylor on Saturday may not be the marquee matchup it has been the past couple of years, but it is still a big game and one with a lot at stake for both teams.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and Baylor is still very much in the race to defend its Big 12 Championship on Dec. 3 in Arlington, Texas. That ship has likely sailed for Oklahoma, although there is still a mathematical chance should the Sooners win out the remainder of the regular season.

If Oklahoma were somehow to win its four remaining games, the Sooners would finish 6-3 in the conference standings. That would be considered a grand success, given the 0-3 conference start, but without an unforeseen collapse on the part of TCU and Kansas State, both of which own victories over the Sooners, not good enough to make it to Arlington.

A loss to Baylor on Saturday likely would also prevent Oklahoma from finishing in the top half of the conference standings, something that has not happened

Here is a 3-Ps breakdown — one player, one problem and one big prediction — on the OU-Baylor showdown on Saturday:

Player

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a key in every Oklahoma game he plays in this season, but against Baylor at the Palace on the Prairie on Saturday, the key player for the Sooners will be running back Eric Gray and his ability to run the ball against one of the country’s top run defenses. The Sooner senior running back is having a career year with 796 rushing yards and averaging 6.8 yards per carry, which ranks seventh-best in the country. The former Tennessee transfer has gained over 100 yards in each of the Sooners past two games, including 176 yards two weeks ago against Kansas the last time OU was at home.

Gray was credited with 101 rushing yards and seven yards per attempt last weekend in the Sooners’ win at Iowa State. The significance of that performance was the Iowa State ranks 26th in the nation in rushing defense, just four spots behind Baylor’s No. 22 national ranking in defending the run.

To beat Baylor, the Sooners need to be able to run the ball, which opens up opportunities to attack the Baylor defense with run-pass option plays and with playmakers Marvin Mims and Jahlil Farooq downfield.

It’s worth pointing out that in Baylor’s two losses this season — coming in back-to-back weeks against Oklahoma State and West Virginia — both opponents were able to run the football. West Virginia pounded the ball for 217 yards on the ground and Oklahoma State gained 166 rushing yards. The Mountaineers totaled 500 yards of total offense and OSU 379 yards against the Bears. Both of those games, incidentally, were on the road, as is the game on Saturday for Baylor. Just sayin’.

One problem

Pure and simple. the Baylor defensive front is the best Oklahoma has faced this season. The Bears are allowing just 113 rushing yards per game this season and an average of 3.4 yards per carry. The Sooners’ track record against Dave Aranda and Baylor defenses has not been good. Baylor also faced a Jeffy Lebby offense last year in a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss, where Lebby was offensive coordinator before coming to Oklahoma. Ole Miss totaled just 322 yards against Baylor in that game on 88 offensive plays. That averaged out to 3.2 yards per play.

In the last three games between OU and Baylor, Oklahoma has averaged just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.8, 2.5 and 3.8 yards per attempt. That won’t get it done on Saturday. Oklahoma must be able to run the ball better than this or risk becoming one-dimensional on offense, which would feed right into Baylor’s defensive game plan.

One big prediction

This is a crossroads game for Oklahoma. A win over Baylor would go a long way in setting up a strong finish to the season for the Sooners, which seemed only remotely possible just a month ago. It also would assure no worse than a 6-6 record in the regular season and avoid a losing record for the first time since 1998. But getting the win on Saturday will not be easy. This game will be won in the trenches, specifically the OU offensive line versus a stout Baylor defensive front. The reverse will also be true. The Sooner defensive line must be able to match the physicality and toughness of the Baylor offensive line. If the Sooners can win the battle in the trenches, they will win the game.

Oklahoma 31, Baylor 27