Oklahoma football: One player, one problem, one big prediction
By Chip Rouse
This is Matt Campbell’s seventh season as head coach of the Iowa State Cyclones. He has faced the Oklahoma football team seven times in the previous six seasons and come away with two wins.
That may not sound like any big deal except for the fact those two wins were two of just three wins Iowa State has against Oklahoma dating back to 1961 and two of just seven total in the 87-game history of the all-time series.
Despite the fact the Sooners have won 90 percent of the games against Iowa State — the highest win percentage by any Power Five team over another opponent with a minimum 50 games played — the seven games between OU and Iowa State in the Campbell coaching era have all been decided by 10 or fewer points, and five by seven or fewer points.
Moral to this story: Iowa State has been a difficult opponent for Oklahoma since Campbell took over that program, and it hasn’t really mattered whether the game was played in Ames, Iowa, or Norman, Oklahoma.
The matchup on Saturday at Iowa State’s Jack Trice Stadium isn’t expected to be any different. Oklahoma is a 1.5-point favorite. Oklahoma’s strength (offense) is Iowa State’s weakness (offense), and the reverse is true when you exchange possessions. Another way of looking at this is when the Sooners have the ball, it will be a matchup of strength versus strength, and when Iowa State has the ball, it will be weakness against weakness.
Game time is set for 11 a.m. Saturday, Oklahoma’s fifth 11 a.m. kick of the season, with three of them on the road. FS1 will televise the game with Noah Eagle and Mark Helfrich announcing.
One player
In the five complete games OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel has played the entire game, the Sooners have average 38.2 points a game. He is the catalyst and engine of the Sooner offense. As he goes, so goes Oklahoma offensively and the Sooners need a top game from Gabriel to beat the country’s 9th best defensive team on Saturday.
Gabriel’s performance and decision making are the critical factor on Saturday, but for Gabriel’s game to be spot on he will need good games from Marvin Mims, his top receiving target, and another solid rushing performance from Eric Gray, who leads the country averaging 7.2 yards per carry.
One problem
Oklahoma has not faced a defense as good as Iowa State’s this season. The Cyclones are allowing opponents 15.1 points a game. That’s sixth best among FBS teams. The Cyclones lead the Big 12 in four major defensive categories (scoring, total, rushing and passing) and are a top-20 team nationally in all four.
What’s worrisome if you’re a Sooner fan is that the OU offense has struggled against lesser defenses, such as Texas (a 49-0 loss) and TCU (a 55-24 loss), albeit without Dillon Gabriel for three-quarters of the game with TCU and the entire game against Texas.
The Sooners are going to have to take full advantage of every scoring opportunity they get, because the Cyclones are not giving up much defensively this season.
One big prediction
I expect the Oklahoma offense to put up points, although probably less than its 38.2 average with Gabriel at the helm, and Iowa State will probably do better offensively against the flawed OU defense than against the four Big 12 teams they’ve already played and lost to. This game will probably be another closely contested battle, but I think the Sooners’ playmakers and overall talent edge, plus good old Mighty Mo from the Kansas win, will win out in the end.
Oklahoma 28, Iowa State 24