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Oklahoma football: Two key matchups will determine OU-TCU outcome

By Chip Rouse

Oct 16, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) and TCU Horned Frogs safety T.J. Carter (7) go for the ball during the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 16, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) and TCU Horned Frogs safety T.J. Carter (7) go for the ball during the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /
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Statistically, the Oklahoma football game this weekend at TCU should be a show of offense. Both teams rank in the top-10 nationally in total offense while also yielding over 350 yards a game in the defensive side.

The two teams are averaging 40 (OU) and 46 (TCU) points a game, so you would be inclined to believe that Saturday’s showdown in Fort Worth could be a high-scoring game. I do expect there to be plenty of offense in the game, but I think this game will be won in the 30s. I’ll go a step further, first team to 35 goes away with the win.

With both teams being offensive minded, the defense that does the best job in two key matchups will likely be the determining factor in the game.

The offenses for both teams have been fairly balanced to this point in the season. Oklahoma gave up 220 yards on the ground and over six yards per rush to Kansas State last week. TCU is averaging 215 rushing yards through three games. The OU front seven played good defense against the run in the Sooners first three games of 2022, but they have to be able to stop the run if they are going to get out of Fort Worth with a win.

With TCU quarterback Max Duggan’s passing numbers (77 percent completion percentage and No. 1 in the country in passing efficiency) and a handful of lengthy and fast wide receivers at his disposal, if the Horned Frogs are able to run the ball effectively, it could be a long afternoon for the visitors.

Turning the tables, however, the TCU defense appears to be very vulnerable to the passing game. The Horned Frogs are ranked 107th among 131 FBS team in pass defense, allowing 272.3 yards per game. The Sooners, meanwhile, with Dillon Gabriel as the trigger man, are averaging 281.8 yards through the air, which ranks 34th in the country.

So, the matchups to watch are the OU run defense vs. the TCU rushing attack and the TCU defense against Gabriel and the OU aerial attack. The outcome of those battles could very well determine the outcome of the game.

Something else to keep an eye on in this game is how fast the Oklahoma offense is able to get on track. The last three game, the Sooners have sputtered in their opening drives of the game. OU scored 21 first-quarter points in the season-opener against UTEP. The Sooners have scored 21 points total in the first quarter in their last three games. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has emphasized the past couple of weeks the need for the offense to get out to a fast start.

The Sooners play much better when they get out in front early, something they were unable to do against Kansas State, trailing wire to wire. This could be another key to an Oklahoma victory over TCU on Saturday.

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