Stormin in Norman
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Oklahoma football: Sooners in deep mix of contenders for fourth and final College Playoff spot

By Chip Rouse

Jan 1, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; A general view of the Capitol One and College Football Playoff (CFP) logo on the field during the Rose Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 1, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; A general view of the Capitol One and College Football Playoff (CFP) logo on the field during the Rose Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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The general consensus among practically every college football expert is that Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are three prohibitive favorites to make the 2022 College Football Playoff. Oklahoma football is among 17 teams vying for that fourth and final playoff spot.

Alabama and Ohio State are the choice of most national pundits and analysts to win their respective conferences, and because the SEC and Big Ten are at present considered the premier conferences in college football, the champions of those two leagues would be an automatic lock for two of the four playoff spots.

Reigning national champion Georgia probably could not afford to lose more than once, including in the SEC Championship game, to earn one of the two remaining playoff berths.

The battle for the final playoff spot could well come down between the winner of the Atlantic Coast Conference (likely to be Clemson), the Big 12 champion, the winner of the Pac-12, Notre Dame, or, like last year, the highest-ranked team among the Group of Five.

According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, powered by ESPN, 20 teams have at least a 1.0 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff this season. Only eight teams, however, have at least a 10 percent chance of making it into college football’s version of the Final Four.

Oklahoma is one of the eight teams with a 10 percent probability as we get set for a schedule-loaded Week 1 of the 2022 season. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Sooners, who are entering their first season under head coach Brent Venables, an 11.3 chance of making the playoff this season, but only a 0.9 percent chance of winning the national championship.

Seven teams rank ahead of Oklahoma in this preseason projection, the most disturbing of which is Texas, given a 17.4 percent chance of making the playoff and a 1.6 percent chance of winning it all.

Six other teams are given a better chance of making it into the playoff than either the Sooners or Longhorns, starting with Ohio State (83.1 percent chance of making it in and 27.3 percent chance of winning the national championship), Alabama (79.7 and 301.), Georgia (75.2 and 24.3), Clemson (58.2 and 10.4), Notre Dame (17.9 and 1.7) and Michigan (17.6 and 1.5).

ESPN college football analyst Heather Dinich writes that OU’s toughest test of the season will be the Oct.8 Red River Showdown with Texas. She acknowledges that the Sooners will also have tough challenges against reigning conference champ Baylor and Oklahoma State, but both of those contests will be played in Norman.

Something the CFP selection committee will like about Oklahoma, according to Dinich, is a more balanced and complete team between offense and defense. Something the committee might hold against the Sooners, she says, is unconvincing wins against unheralded opponents.

Let the games begin. And for the Sooners, it all gets underway on Saturday with a home season opener against unheralded UTEP.

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