Three games into the 2021 season, the Oklahoma football team sits at 3-0 and ranked No. 4 in the nation in the Associated Press poll (No. 3 in the Coaches Poll).
On that basis alone, you would conclude, having not seen the Sooners in action in any of their three outings, that everything is OK in the Sooner Nation and the OU is on its way to another successful 10- or 11-win season.
That might, indeed, be the case, but there appear to be some very clear warning signs that, if not addressed, won’t net the same result the Sooners going forward have been fortunate to achieve early in the schedule.
OU closes out the regular-season schedule with games against Iowa State, which many consider to be the biggest game on the Sooners’ 2021 schedule, and on the road in its annual in-state rivalry game with Oklahoma State, a team that, like the Sooners, is 3-0 after three games. The outcome of those two games will likely determine if six-time defending Big 12 champion Oklahoma is able to play for a seventh straight conference crown.
At current face value, those two games to close out 2021 regular season may be the two biggest games on OU’s remaining schedule, but the most pivotal games, and three games the Sooners must win to stay not just in the conference race but in the national title chase, as well, lie dead ahead: West Virginia at home this weekend, followed by a road game at Kansas State and the Red River Showdown with Texas in Dallas.
West Virginia and Texas are both 2-1 but are playing well in the early going despite two road losses. Kansas State has won two consecutive games against the Sooners and is playing better now than in either of the past two seasons.
There are danger signs all over that road map, and if Oklahoma is not able to ramp up its offensive performance in the coming weeks, and get off the field more frequently on defense, the Sooners could be looking at a 4-2, or worse, 3-3 record come the middle of next month.
The Sooners rolled up 624 yards of offense against Western Carolina, which is more like we’re used to seeing from a Lincoln Riley-designed offense. But Western Carolina isn’t an FBS or Power Five opponent. Against a good but not great Nebraska team on Saturday, and playing before a capacity home crowd on top of it, OU was only able to produce 408 yards of total offense, and not one of Spencer Rattler’s 24 completed passes was longer than 23 yards.
"“I really felt, offensively, without having watched the tape, that everybody was just OK as far as the quality of play,” Lincoln Riley said in his postgame comments after the game on Saturday.“We had some great moments,” he continued, “but we just weren’t quite sharp enough to play elite ball.“We’ve got to play cleaner ball. We still make too many mistakes,” he said."
Against unranked and displaced Tulane to open the season — again at home because the game, originally scheduled for New Orleans, had to be relocated because of Hurricane Ida — the Sooners garnered just 430 yards of offense and just one of Rattler’s 30 completions was longer than 24 yards.
The Sooners appear to be playing more conservatively on offense than in season’s past. Yet OU appears to have as many offensive weapons as in any previous season along with a veteran and deep offensive line. Defenses are allowing underneath throws in OU passing offense, but are dropping defenders to take away the Sooners’ deep-ball threat. They want to test OU’s patience on offense and force the Sooners to sustain long drives to score, and better yet, trade field goals for touchdowns.
Oklahoma is playing better defensively, coming up with big plays and big stops when they need to, but Alex Grinch’s crew is still struggling to get defensive stops and allowing opponents to extend drives longer than they should be able to. By not being able to get off the field more consistently on defense, it is shortening the game and taking away possessions and scoring opportunities from a Sooner offense that is much more potent and dangerous than it has shown thus far.
OU’s front seven is the strength of the defense. The Sooners have done a good job this year stopping or slowing down the run game, but they are still vulnerable at the back end, especially against teams with height and length advantages at wide receiver and tight end.
After all three games so far, Riley has praised the Sooners for playing hard and fighting their tails off. He, as well as any of us knows that it’s not about how hard you play, but rather how smart and effective you are in making plays and executing your assignment that wins ball games.
So far, Oklahoma is doing just OK and just getting by. Discarding the dismantling of an inferior Western Carolina team, the Sooners’ two other wins have been by a combined 12 points. That’s not going to get Oklahoma where it wants and expects to go this season.
Just OK just isn’t good enough.