Oklahoma football: Sizing up the Big 12 Championship and who will win

Can Oklahoma football do what it did in 2018 and beat a team it lost too earlier in the season to capture the Big 12 Championship?

That’s the scenario the Sooners face in this atypical year of 2020 and as they prepare to defend the conference crown they have held for five consecutive seasons and an unprecedented 13 in the Big 12 era.

In 2018, Texas defeated Oklahoma in their annual regular-season rivalry game. The Sooners, however, won the rematch when the same two teams met again in the Big 12 championship game.

Winning conference championships in football is something Oklahoma does better than any other team in the country. Since winning their first conference championship in 1915 as a founding member of the Southwest Conference, the Sooners have won 49 conference titles, three more than the next best team (Nebraska with 46).

Iowa State (8-2, 8-1) will be the fourth different opponent Oklahoma (7-2, 6-2) has faced in the Big 12 championship game in as many seasons since the Big 12 Championship in football returned after a six-season hiatus. (When the Big 12 underwent realignment a decade ago, the championship game in football was discontinued between 2011 and 2016.)

Unlike the past three Big 12 title games, however, the Sooners do not come into the 2020 matchup as the regular-season champion or the higher-ranked team. As a result, Oklahoma will be the visiting team in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship. Whether OU will wear its traditional white road uniform or spruce it up with the “Bring the Wood” alternate design remains to be determined.

Iowa State comes into the game as the No. 6 team in the College Football Playoff rankings and with a victory already over the 10th-ranked Sooners in 2020.  The Cyclones defeated Oklahoma 37-30 on Oct. 3 at Iowa State.

Oklahoma is playing much better than it did in the loss at Iowa State, winning six straight games. Three of those wins were by 28 points or more, and the Sooners have scored more than 50 points in three of them.

A case can be made that Iowa State has gotten better since the Oklahoma game, as well. The Cyclones have won six of seven since defeating OU, their loss of the season, and they’ve won two of the last three game by 36 and 45 points, respectively. Their one conference loss was by three points, 24-21, at Oklahoma State on Oct. 24.

The game will be televised, beginning at 11 a.m. CT, on ABC. Sean McDonough will do the play-by-play, with commentary by Todd Blackledge. Todd McShay and Allison Williams will work the sidelines.

What to watch for from Iowa State

Quarterback Brock Purdy is the triggerman for an Iowa State offense that averages 34.0 points and 441.7 yards per game, third best in the Big 12. The Cyclones’ strength is running the ball, and they do that well behind the country’s rushing leader, sophomore Breece Hall, who has gained 1,357 yards and averages 6.1 yards per carry

In the first game against the Sooners, Hall gained 139 yards on the ground and scored two rushing touchdowns.

When Purdy drops back on passing downs, he is generally looking to throw to one of his tall tight ends. He has three to choose from, including 6-foot, 6-inch Charlie Kolar, who hails from OU’s backyard in Norman, Oklahoma. Kolar has caught 33 passes this season and five touchdown throws. The Cyclones also have two other TE’s that use a lot, Chase Allen and Dylan Soehner, who are six-foot-six and six-foot-seven, respectively.

Iowa State has the Big 12’s third leading receiver, junior transfer Xavier Hutchinson, who also has a size advantage over the shorter Oklahoma defensive backs. Hutchinson has 50 receptions for 612 yards and five touchdown catches in 10 games this season.

The Iowa State offense is formidable, with a number of weapons and one of the conference’s best quarterbacks, but it is the stinginess on defense that makes the Cyclones as good as they’ve been this season. They make you work for every yard and every scoring opportunity. ISU placed nine players on the All-Big 12 First Team this season, and four of those were on defense, led by defensive lineman JaQuan Bailey, linebacker Mike Rose and Greg Eisworth on the back end.

The Cyclones have a premier kickoff returner in Kene Nwangwu, that must be accounted for on special teams. He had an 85-yard kick return in this year’s win over Oklahoma.

Keys to an Oklahoma victory

The Sooners must be able to run the ball against Iowa State to take pressure off of Spencer Rattler and not force him to have win the game through passing alone. Oklahoma’s offensive success is based on a balanced attack, and the running game is much more effective with the return of senior running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who was not available for the Iowa State game in early October.

Over the last four games Stevenson, who carries 246 pounds on a 6-foot frame, has averaged 85 yards a game and close to six yards per carry, along with six rushing touchdowns. Junior running back T.J. Pledger provides the lightning to Stevenson’s thunder in the OU rushing attack, and he will be counted on to contribute on Saturday, as well.

Rattler leads the Big 12 in nearly every passing statistic and he has a variety of outstanding young receivers to target when he lets the ball fly. The Sooners have four receivers, all of whom have at least 23 receptions, have combined for 15 touchdown catches and rank in the top 20 of all Big 12 receivers. OU will be missing one of those receivers (TE Austin Stogner) for the rematch with Iowa State.

Oklahoma will always be recognized first for its offensive prowess, but in truth, it is the Sooner defense that has been the most impressive this season, and particularly of late. The return of defensive end Ronnie Perkins, arguably the Sooners best player, from a six-game suspension that also impacted Stevenson, has made a big difference.

The Sooner defensive line has been especially impressive in getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks during the OU six-game win streak. In the last six games, Oklahoma has recorded 27 sacks. Since Oct. 10, the Sooners lead the country in that important defensive category.

That kind of quarterback pressure plus limiting Breece Hall’s rushing yards are keys to an Oklahoma win.

If the game is close, which is a good bet in a showdown between the two best teams in the conference, special teams and the kicking game could have a major impact. OU’s Gabe Brkic leads the Big 12 with a 76.2 field-goal percentage (16 of 21).

Stat line(s) to keep in mind

• This is just the fourth time Oklahoma has faced a team it lost to earlier in the same season. The last time that happened was against Texas in the 2018 Big 12 Championship. OU is 2-1 in such games.
• Oklahoma and Iowa State rank in the top three in the Big 12 in total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense.
• The Sooners are No. 1 in the Big 12 in total offense (485.1 yards per game) and scoring offense (43.4 points per game), second in the conference in total defense (322.3) and third in scoring defense (22.0).
• Iowa State is No. 3 in the Big 12 in total offense (441.7 yards per game), in scoring offense (34.0), and in total defense (338.1), and second in scoring defense (21.3).
• Saturday’s Big 12 Championship features an Oklahoma defense that leads the Big 12 and ranks fourth nationally, allowing just 88.1 rushing yards per game. Iowa State ranks second in the Big 12, averaging 199.9 rushing yards per game.

Bottom line

The Las Vegas oddsmakers have established the Sooners as a 5.5-point favorite, despite having lost earlier in the season to Iowa State. This should be a really good game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went down to the very end before the game is decided. You can forget about OU’s overwhelming dominance in the all-time series (76-7-2). It is totally irrelevant for this weekend.

The Sooners will go as far in this game as Rattler and the OU defense take them. If Rattler plays well and avoids costly turnovers, the Sooners should win.

A Big 12 assistant told ESPN earlier this week:

"“It will be a very good game, but from a talent standpoint, Oklahoma’s ahead.”"

I agree.

Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 27