Oklahoma football: Sooners’ series dominance over Baylor irrelevant this week

The scheduled Oklahoma football game this Saturday is the season finale at home against the visiting Baylor Bears.

The 11th-ranked Sooners not only need to win this game, they need to play it.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are currently tied for the No. 2 spot in the Big 12 standings. If it remains that way, the Sooners own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cowboys and would earn the spot opposite Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.

OU controls its own destiny as far as the conference championship game is concerned. All the Sooners have to do is win their final two games, but they also must be able to play at least one of the remaining two games. The reason that becomes an issue is because there is a minimum number of games requirement this season (because of COVID-related postponements and cancellations) to qualify to play in a conference championship game.

So far, there have been only three postponements and no cancellations this season in the Big 12. Therefore, it appears that the average number of conference games in the Big 12 is going to be nine, which means that one fewer than the average, or eight, will be the threshold to qualify for the Big 12 title game this year. Oklahoma has played seven games thus far.

Oklahoma’s game with West Virginia, originally scheduled for last weekend, was rescheduled to Dec. 12 because of COVID issues in the Sooner program, but that is just one week ahead of the Big 12 Championship, which means makeup dates will be a problem from this week forward, underscoring why being able to play the OU-Baylor game is important.

The Sooners lead the all-time series with Baylor 27-3 and are 13-1 when the game is played in Norman.  Perhaps the best two games in the 30-game series between these two teams were a year ago, when Oklahoma won a dramatic 34-31 come-from-behind victory over the 12-ranked Bears in the regular-season and then defeated them a second time, 38-31, for the Big 12 championship.

Oklahoma needs a win over Baylor and then next weekend at West Virginia to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game and play for what would be its14th conference championship in the Big 12 era and sixth in a row.

Kickoff for Saturday’s 2020 OU home finale is set for 7 p.m. CT and will be broadcast nationally by FOX, with Tim Brando and former Sooner Spencer Tillman announcing.

What to watch for from Baylor

Baylor (2-5) won just its second conference game of the season last weekend, coming from behind late to defeat a depleted Kansas State team, 32-31 on a game-winning 30-yard field goal as time expired.

The Baylor offense is led by senior quarterback Charlie Brewer, who ranks fourth in the Big 12, completing 65 percent of his pass attempts for 1,627 yards and 13 touchdowns with six interceptions. Brewer also is the team’s leading rusher with 169  yards on the ground and three rushing TDs.

The Bears’ run game is the worst in the Big 12. They are averaging just 3.0 yards per rush, and no Baylor player has more than 197 rushing yards this season. This could be a big problem for Baylor on Saturday night because Oklahoma’s run defense is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 96.0 yards per game.

Baylor has a good receiving corps, however, led by junior wide receiver R.J. Sneed, who has 33 catches through seven games for 435 yards, including three for touchdowns. Four Baylor receivers have 20 or more receptions this season.

Despite their record, the Bears’ defense has played solidly this season. The strength is in the back end, where the Baylor secondary is holding opponents to 184 passing yards per game, second best in the Big 12 behind West Virginia.

Running back Trestan Ebner is a threat returning kickoffs. He leads the Big 12, averaging 35.2 yards per return, including two kickoffs returned for touchdowns.

Baylor has 14 takeaways this season (nine interceptions and five fumble recoveries) and ranks 12th nationally in turnover margin (1.0).

Keys to an Oklahoma win

The Sooners (6-2, 5-2) are seeking their seventh straight win over Baylor and sixth consecutive win this season after starting the 2020 season 1-2.

Oklahoma has been rolling the past three games, scoring  162 points and giving up just 50.  The Sooners’ last game was 14 days ago, however, so it will be interesting to see what affect the two-week layoff and COVID issues will have on their offensive timing and execution as well as who will and won’t be available or at full strength for the game.

It’s probably fortunate that the Sooners are playing at home and against a less-talented Baylor team and not having to play at West Virginia this weekend, given the importance of both games to OU’s conference championship hopes.

Quarterback Spencer Rattler has settled in nicely to the starter’s role and is the field general of the country’s 10th-best offense. He leads the Big 12 with 2,319 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. He has four prime receiving targets, headed by true freshman Marvin Mims, all of whom have caught 20 or more passes. The Sooners lead the Big 12 and rank seventh in the country in passing offense (343.9 yards per game).

Offensive balance is what makes OU so difficult to defend. The Sooner run game has picked up dramatically since the return to action of senior Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson’s size and strength makes him difficult to bring down. In his last two games, he is averaging 122 yards per game and over six yards per carry.

Alex Grinch’s defense is the big difference in this year’s Oklahoma team. The OU defense ranks in the top 20 nationally this season in several key statistical categories and has held the Sooners’ last to opponents (Kansas and Oklahoma State) to 22 points total. The Baylor offense has struggled this season, especially running the football, which will be going up against the strength of the OU defense.

Key stat line(s) to watch

• In each of the last five seasons, Oklahoma has won its preceding five games leading up to its bowl appearance.
• Oklahoma is 46-6 in regular-season Big 12 games since Lincoln Riley joined the Sooner coaching staff in 2015 and 21-3 at home. In his three-plus seasons as head coach, the Sooners are 29-5 against Big 12 opponents and 13-3 at home.
• The Sooner offense is averaging 512 yards a game, 10th best in the country. The Baylor defense is allowing 368 yards a game, ranked 42nd among FBS teams.
• Baylor ranks second in the Big 12 with nine interceptions, two of which have been returned to touchdowns.

Bottom line

Oklahoma averages 18 more points per game than Baylor (45.5-27.6), which is about what the point spread is for this game (OU, -22). If the Sooners aren’t missing several starters at the skill positions, they should be able to cover the spread.

Oklahoma 45, Baylor 17