Oklahoma football: Must play as important as must win

Since Week 3 of the Big 12 season we’ve been harping about how important it was for the Oklahoma football team to run the table the rest of the way.

The mathematics were simple: A third loss would in all probability eliminate any chance the Sooners would have of playing for the Big 12 Championship, something they’ve made a regular habit of the last five seasons.

Since losing to Iowa State on Oct. 3, Oklahoma has put together five straight wins, achieving what it needed to do to this point in the season to remain in contention for another Big 12 title shot.

The Sooners have two regular-season game remaining, and one of those was scheduled to be played at West Virginia on Saturday night. That game has been postponed, however, because of COVID-19 positive tests and contract tracing affecting the Oklahoma squad.

Oklahoma Sooners Football

The West Virginia game has been rescheduled for Dec. 12. Beyond that there are no other dates left before the Big 12 Championship on Dec. 19 to fit in makeup games, and Dec. 5 doesn’t work for either the Sooners or Mountaineers because they both have games scheduled on that date.

The Big 12 has contingency plans in place to determine the final places in the standings in the event that teams do not play the same number of games. This becomes particularly important in determining the matchup for the Big 12 championship game.

Iowa State defeated Texas on Friday, which clinches a spot for the Cyclones in their first conference championship game in the Big 12 era and a chance for their first conference crown since 1912. By the same token, the loss virtually eliminated Texas from conference title contention, although they are still mathematically alive.

As of Friday afternoon, the battle for second place is between the two Oklahoma schools. Oklahoma is at 5-2, a half-game better than OSU at 4-2.

There is a good chance that the average number of games played by Big 12 teams this year will be the standard nine games. The reason this is important is because to  remain in contention to play for the conference championship a team must have played no fewer than one game less than the league average.

Assuming that the Sooners are able to play their final two games and win both,  there is no way Oklahoma State can finish ahead of them because OU owns the tiebreaker over the Cowboys by virtue of the 41-13 win last weekend.

Oklahoma would also have the advantage should Oklahoma State win out, but play one game more or one game less than the Sooners. Again, the head-to-head outcome would have precedence over which team would win the No. 2 seed in the league title game despite the final winning percentage.

The two scenarios that absolutely cannot happen for Oklahoma to make the conference championship and defend its five consecutive Big 12 crowns are this:

• Lose to either Baylor on Dec. 5 or at West Virginia on Dec. 12.
• Not being to play either game because of a COVID outbreak and finish with a 5-2 record while Oklahoma State is able to win out and finish with a 7-2 record.

West Virginia, Texas and Kansas State all sit at 4-3, a half-game back of Oklahoma State and a full game back of the Sooners.

Here are the pathways for a matchup with Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship for the teams that remain in contention for the No. 2 spot in the standings:

Oklahoma: If the Sooners win out, they’re in, as long as they play at least eight games.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys get in with an Oklahoma loss and by winning their final three games.

Texas: The Longhorns can make it to the Big 12 Championship by winning their final two games (at Kansas State and at home against Kansas) and if Oklahoma or Oklahoma State lose again before season end.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers improbable path to the Big 12 title game on Dec. 19 is to win its final two games (at Iowa State and at home against Oklahoma) and for Oklahoma State to lose two of its final three games and Texas to lose at least once more (to either Kansas State of Kansas). Both OSU and Texas have the tiebreaker against West Virginia.

Kansas State: The Wildcats still have a mathematical chance, but it would take complete chaos over the final two weeks for K-State to wiggle into the championship game. First, K-State needs to beat Baylor this weekend and Texas next weekend to have a chance. In addition, Oklahoma would have to lose once, West Virginia would have to lose one of its final two games (Iowa State and Oklahoma) and Oklahoma State will have to lose two of three, and that is the least likely of all the scenarios.

Only two weeks left in the regular season, and lots that can still happen. The one thing that is certain as far as Sooner fans are concerned is win two more games and OU is in, but they also have to play those games.