Memo to the rest of the Big 12 from Oklahoma football: Can you hear us now?
This past weekend was a big step toward redemption for 2020 Oklahoma football.
Not only did the Sooners unload with all their offensive and defensive fury against a Texas Tech team that from the outset thought it had OU’s number, but some additional chaos in the Big 12 put Oklahoma right back in the thick of the Big 12 title chase.
The Sooners’ 62-28 blowout win over Texas Tech was their third consecutive victory, all away from home, and served as fair warning to the rest of the Big 12 that the five-time reigning conference champs were not about to go away easily.
In fact, now that we are in the month of November and OU has several key players back in action, Big 12 teams — especially those who are upcoming on the Sooner schedule — have good reason to be concerned.
With Oklahoma State and Kansas State both losing last weekend, every team in the Big 12 has at least one conference loss. K-State and Iowa State are tied at the top of the league standings with matching 4-1 records. Oklahoma State is a half-game back at 3-1, and then comes OU, Texas and West Virginia at 3-2.
In other words, just one game separates the top six teams in the conference with four games left to play for everybody except Oklahoma State and Baylor, who have five remaining games because of a COVID-related postponement earlier in the season.
The Sooners already hold the tiebreaker with Texas by virtue of their four-overtime victory in this year’s Red River rivalry game, and they still have the chance to do so against Oklahoma State and West Virginia in games still to come.
So, where does that leave us as the Big 12 heads around the final turn and into the homestretch of the 2020 season? And more specifically, where does that leave the Sooners, who just a few short weeks ago were sitting 0-2 in league play and on life support fighting to stay alive?
To borrow from election polling terminology — which we should all know by now is risky business — what is Oklahoma’s best path to get to the Big 12 championship game?
Let’s start by saying things are definitely looking up if you’re an Oklahoma fan, but the downside is the Sooners do not have control of their own destiny. They need more help, but that also is where there is some good news.
Oklahoma is likely to be favored in all of its remaining games, including a potential game-changing matchup at home with Oklahoma State on Nov. 21. The reason the Bedlam game with the Cowboys is so important, other than the obvious in-state rivalry implications, is because an OU win would give the Sooners the tiebreaker over their in-state rivals.
Oklahoma Sooners Football
The remaining games for Oklahoma include Kansas this weekend, Oklahoma State, at West Virginia on Nov. 28 and the regular-season finale at home on Dec. 5 against Baylor.
Being favored, however, and actually winning are two very different things. And to be perfectly clear, the only plausible path for Oklahoma to make it to the Big 12 Championship is to win all four of its remaining games, three of which are at home. Mathematically, the Sooners could lose one more time and still get to defend their conference crown, but that scenario working out favorably for OU is highly unlikely.
There is a huge game that could positively impact the Sooners this coming weekend. And this could be one of the few times it would be in Oklahoma’s favor to root for Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State (3-1 in the conference) plays at Kansas State (4-1) on Saturday. K-State and Iowa State currently have just one conference loss and, more importantly, they both own the tiebreaker over the Sooners. What this simply means is OU needs at least one, and ideally both, of those teams to lose two more times before the end of the regular season.
Kansas State arguably has the most difficult remaining schedule of the four leading contenders fighting for the chance to be the last two teams standing in the Big 12 championship race.
To help the Sooners’ cause, K-State needs to lose two of its remaining four games, which stacks up like this: OSU at home this weekend, at Iowa State on Nov. 21, at Baylor on Nov. 28, and back home to face Texas on Dec. 5. Note that the Wildcats own a 6-1 record in Manhattan against the Longhorns in the Big 12 era.
Iowa State’s remaining games consist of three home games and one road contest: Baylor at home this weekend, Kansas State at home Nov. 21, at Texas on Nov. 28 and the home finale with West Virginia on Dec. 5.
Oklahoma State’s remaining schedule includes at K-State this weekend, at OU on Nov. 21, Texas Tech Nov. 28, at TCU on Dec. 5 and at Baylor on Dec. 12. That adds up to four road contests — all very winnable, however — and just one more home game as part of the 2020 schedule.
That’s how things stand now. Here’s how I believe things will play out over the next six weekends (home team in bold face; the projected winning team in the far left-hand column):
November 7
Oklahoma State over Kansas State
Oklahoma over Kansas
Iowa State over Baylor
November 21
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State
Iowa State over Kansas State
November 27-28
Oklahoma over West Virginia
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech
Kansas State over Baylor
Texas over Iowa State
December 5
Oklahoma over Baylor
Oklahoma State over TCU
Kansas State over Texas
Iowa State over West Virginia
December 12
Oklahoma State over Baylor
If this projection turns out to be the reality, the top half of the final conference standings will look like this: Iowa State (7-2), Oklahoma (7-2), Oklahoma State (7-2), Kansas State (6-3). Texas 6-3).
This would set up a conference championship game on Dec. 19 in Arlington, Texas, between:
Oklahoma and Iowa State, and a chance for the Sooners to avenge their earlier loss at Iowa State, much like what happened in 2018 when OU had a rematch with Texas for the Big 12 championship.