Oklahoma football: Sooners’ title hopes require perfect finish

While several Big 12 teams have multiple paths to the Big 12 championship game this season the pathway for Oklahoma football is down to just one.

Three Big 12 teams — Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Kansas State — remain undefeated with perfect 3-0 records in conference play. Two other teams — West Virginia and Baylor — have only one conference loss.

All of this represents a very small sample size, with more than half of the season schedule remaining to be played. That’s under ideal conditions, of course. The reality is, with the unpredictability of COVID-19 exposure, no one really knows how many games teams will actually be able to play.

Some teams may be able to make it through the complete 10-game schedule, while others may only be able to complete nine or even eight games. The Big 12 does have a formula in place to sort things out should an unbalanced schedule complicate the standings and, most of all, deciding which two teams earn the right to compete for the conference championship in Arlington, Texas, on Dec. 19.

If every team plays the same number of games, the Big 12 tiebreaker procedures will apply. If an unbalanced schedule results, however, because of the pandemic, teams will have to have played “no less than one fewer conference games than the average number of conference games played by all teams in the league,” rounded up or down, accordingly, a Big 12 official told Jason Kersey of The Athletic.

It’s not over till it’s over, that’s what Oklahoma football is holding on to this season

Regarding Oklahoma’s chances to defend its Big 12 crown, which the Sooners have done successfully for the past four seasons, there is only one nicely paved road open to them: Win their remaining six conference games, and even that might not be good enough. OU is still going to need some help.

Iowa State is at Oklahoma State this weekend. One of those teams is going to have a conference loss on its record afterward. Kansas State hosts Kansas this weekend and is most likely to remain undefeated in the Big 12.

Kansas State still has a home game with Oklahoma State and a road game at Iowa State remaining on the schedule, and both Kansas State and Iowa State have Texas remaining. K-State gets the Longhorns at home, while Iowa State must travel to Austin.

Are you still with me? What it all boils down to is this: Oklahoma has no margin for error. The Sooners must win all its remaining regular season games, including over Oklahoma State on Nov. 21 in Norman.

Both Iowa State and Kansas State own the tiebreaker over OU should one or both of those teams tie the Sooners with two league losses. That means one or both ISU and KSU would need to lose half of their remaining six games.

If either K-State or Iowa State ends up with a 7-2 league mark, though, Oklahoma State would have to lose twice, including to OU, for the Sooners to have a path to the championship game. Under this scenario, Oklahoma would win the tiebreaker over OSU and play either K-State or Iowa State for the Big 12 title.

Of course their are other mathematical combinations that could render an even different result. Say that West Virginia or Baylor were to win their remaining games, one of them could end up playing in the Big 12 Championship. There is even a path still open to two-loss Texas, but probably with too many potholes to make it realistic.

Any way you want to slice it, Oklahoma cannot afford any more conference losses. Lose any more games and the Sooners will be watching the Big 12 Championship at home for the first time in five seasons.