Oklahoma football: Sooners looking to keep win streak going at TCU

In a normal year, the fact that Oklahoma football is headed to TCU — or anywhere, for that matter — after playing Texas should give Sooner fans a positive vibe.

But as everyone on the planet is keenly aware, this is not a typical year, and so far it has not been one for Sooner football, either.

Oklahoma has won 20 of the last 21 games immediately following the Red River rivalry game with Texas. Add to that wins in 24 of the last 26 true road games. The Sooners have also won their last six games against TCU and are 8-1 against the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 era.

Six of the nine games between OU and TCU since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 in 2012, however, have been decided by seven or fewer points, and that includes last year’s game in Norman, won by the Sooners 28-24.

The last time Oklahoma played at TCU with two overall losses was in 2016. The Sooners won that game 52-46 and proceeded to run off 10 straight wins afterward and finish the year at 12-2. In 2014, however, OU lost at TCU, 37-33, after going 4-0 to begin the season, and was never the same after that, finishing the year with an 8-5 overall record.

All of this to say, the game Saturday at TCU is a pivotal one in the Sooners’ season.

Both teams have a couple of common opponents this season. Both teams lost to Iowa State (TCU by three points, OU by seven) and both recorded wins over Texas (TCU by two points, OU by eight in four overtimes).

Aside from the matchup between Gary Patterson’s TCU defense, which has always been one of the best in the Big 12, and Lincoln Riley’s high-octane offense, a key factor in this game will be how the two teams perform in the fourth quarter.

Finishing games has been the Achilles heel in Oklahoma’s season through the first four games. The Sooners have been outscored 45-10 in the final quarter this season and have been outgained 357 yards to 193. Meanwhile, TCU’s best scoring quarter has been the fourth. The Horned Frogs are outscoring their opponents 30-24 over the final 15 minutes.

Saturday’s game is an 11 a.m. kick, the third one Oklahoma has had this season. The game will be televised by ABC with Joe Tessitore doing the play-by-play, former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy providing color and Holly Roe as the sideline reporter.

What you need to know about TCU

The hallmark of TCU football under head coach Gary Patterson has been its stifling defense. With the exception of one season, the Horned Frogs have ranked first or second in the Big 12 in total defense every season since it joined the conference in 2012.

Defense will play a key role in Saturday’s game. The Horned Frogs are not as potent offensively as Oklahoma. TCU is only averaging 27 points a game, so slowing down the OU offense and limiting its scoring opportunities are critical factors if TCU is to pull off the upset.

TCU has done a good job so far getting off the field on third-down, and this will be important against the Sooners. The Frogs are allowing their opponents to convert on third down just 34.2 percent of the time (13 of 38). The Horned Frogs are also among the league leaders in holding their opponents to three-and-out possessions 40.5 percent of the time.

TCU was second in the nation last season in forced three-and-outs per game.

The strength of the TCU defense may be at the back end, where they have a lot of experience. Junior cornerback Noah Daniels leads the nation in lowest completion percentage (27 percent), and Trevon Moehrig and Ar’Darius Washington are rated by Pro Football Focus as the highest- graded safeties against Power Five offenses.

On offense the Horned Frogs are led by sophomore quarterback Max Duggan. Duggan is completing 69 percent of his passes, but he is also dangerous running the ball. In last year’s game in Norman, he ran for 92 yards and a touchdown. Duggan leads TCU in rushing this season, averaging 44 yards a game. A pair of freshmen, Kendre Miller and Darwin Barlow, are both averaging over five yards per rushing attempt.

TCU has run the ball on 55 percent of its offensive snaps this season.

Junior Taye Barber and freshman Blair Conwright are the the chief receiving targets when TCU goes to the air.

What Oklahoma needs to do to win

Oklahoma turned three takeaways into a win against Texas, the most crucial of which was an interception in the end zone by senior cornerback Tre Brown to end the game in the fourth overtime session. The turnover battle could play a big role against TCU, a team with a very good defense that has played the Sooners close in a number of games since joining the Big 12 in 2012.

Spencer Rattler leads the Big 12 and ranks sixth nationally in passing completion percentage (71.3) and passing efficiency (174.0) and ranks 14th in the country in passing yards per game (296.5), but he is also among the nation’s leaders in interceptions with five through four games. The TCU secondary is one of the best in the Big 12, so Rattler’s accuracy and efficiency when throwing the ball will be of prime importance if OU is to win a seventh straight game over TCU.

The Sooner run game finally broke through against Texas, gaining 208 yards. Junior T.J. Pledger was responsible for 131 of those yards plus a couple of rushing touchdowns. They hope to have freshman Seth McGowan back for the TCU game, but the Sooners will need a another strong rushing effort on Saturday against a TCU front seven that is giving up 178 yards per game, second worst in the Big 12.

If Oklahoma is able to run the ball well, it will open up the field and put more pressure on the Horned Frogs’ ability to defend the Sooner passing game and prevent big plays downfield.

The Oklahoma defense has played brilliantly at times — especially early in games — and then disappears into its former much-criticized self at other inopportune times. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch says they are working diligently on this schizophrenic disparity in an effort to gain more defensive consistency, but it remains a work in progress.

The Sooners need the defense that showed up in the first half at Texas to play a complete game against TCU. The Horned Frogs are not as talented offensively as the Sooners, but if the OU defense allows TCU to hang around and stay within striking distance on the scoreboard, it could prove fatal if OU goes into its disappearing act with the game on the line late.

Key stats to watch

• Oklahoma has rushed for at least 200 yards in each of its last six games with TCU and won all six games.
• The Sooners are outscoring their opponents 58-3 in the first quarter this season and 96-48 in the first half. The second half is another story.
• TCU is 117-5 under Gary Patterson when it holds its opponent to 17 points or less.
• Under Gary Patterson, TCU is 44-18 in regular-season games following a loss. Since 2000, Oklahoma is 36-2 in all games after a loss.
• Since 2005, TCU’s winning percentage when it is ahead or equal to its opponent in turnover margin is 86 percent.

Bottom line

The historical percentages as well as the odds (-6.5) are in Oklahoma’s favor. The Sooners have scored at least 30 points in each of its last 31 true road games and have scored less than that just once in the last six games against TCU. They are also 21-7 since 2000 coming off a bye week.

Thirty points should be enough for a win on Saturday in what should be another tight game between these two Big 12 foes.

Oklahoma 34, TCU 27