Saturday night’s game at Iowa State is a critical 2021 juncture for Oklahoma football.
A number of college football experts are saying that this game will tell us whether the Sooners are for real this season and worthy of a top-five preseason ranking or whether too much was based on tradition and past history as a predictor of the present.
Sooner fans should be disturbed that some of the nationally known gamers and prediction machines that make a living forecasting college football outcomes not only are saying that Iowa State will cover the minus-7.5 points Oklahoma is favored by over Iowa State this weekend, but that the Cyclones will win the game outright.
In my game preview for the OU-Iowa State game, I predicted Oklahoma would win 38-27. I’ve seen several other national projections that suggest the game will be higher scoring and closer than that.
Here are five reasons I think the Sooners will win:
Oklahoma doesn’t let one loss turn into two
The Sooners are one of the best teams in college football in responding to a loss and not allowing one loss turn into two. Oklahoma has not lost back-to-back games in the regular season since the 1999 season. That is the longest such active streak among FBS teams. Alabama is the next closest, having not lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2007.
The 1999 season was Bob Stoops’ inaugural year as head coach of the Sooners. OU lost back-to-back games that season against Notre Dame (30-34) and Texas (28-38).
Sooners will play with greater urgency than they would have if they’d have held on to defeat K-State
The stunning loss to Kansas State a week ago definitely got the attention of the Oklahoma players and coaches. Because of that, you can expect Oklahoma to play with a greater sense of urgency and determination than they might have had they held on and withstood the K-State fourth-quarter rally.
Oklahoma has always played well at Iowa State, and will again on Saturday
Similar to what happened in the second half of the Kansas State game last weekend, the Sooners let a 35-14 first-half lead nearly evaporate against Iowa State a year ago. The Cyclones were unsuccessful on a two-point conversion try that might have won the game and given the Cyclones consecutive wins in Norman. Instead, Oklahoma prevailed 42-41.
Since the start of the 1999 season, Oklahoma is 14-1 against Iowa State, with 13 of the 14 games decided by double digits. Moreover, the Sooners have won 24 consecutive road games at Iowa State and have not lost there since the 1961 season.
Oklahoma leads the all-time series with Iowa State with a record of 76-6-2. The .917 winning percentage is OU’s best against any opponent they have played at least 50 times.
Spencer Rattler will have a big day passing and not throw any interceptions
Redshirt freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions against Kansas State, which detracted greatly from his 30 for 41, 387-yard passing performance with four touchdowns. In fact, two of the interceptions might not have happened were it not for extenuating circumstances.
One of the throws was tipped at the line of scrimmage, deflected in the air and picked off by a K-State defender. Another came on a forced throw with under a minute to play, the Sooners out of timeouts and Rattler trying to get his team in field goal range to tie the game. The throw was high, over the outstretched arms of the intended Sooner receiver and was picked off, sealing the upset win for K-State.
Rattler will learn from that experience. He is a young player with a ton of talent and unusual confidence for someone who has started just two collegiate games. Look for him to bounce back at Iowa State, have a big day with both his arms and legs, with no interceptions, and lead his team to a 25 consecutive win over the Cyclones on their home turf.
The OU defense will generate a couple of turnovers and not give up more than two passes of 30 or more yards
Last week against Kansas State, the Oklahoma defense failed to generate any turnovers and gave up five plays of 35 yards or more. The Sooners played solid defense for the first 43 minutes of the game, but inexplicably unraveled in a forgettable fourth-quarter.
The Sooner “D” has heard and read all week about how ineffective and predictable they continue to be despite glimpses to the contrary. They will come to play at Iowa State and even force a couple of turnovers that turn into Oklahoma recoveries. Look for one of those to come on special teams.