Oklahoma football: Not must-win, but need-to-win at Iowa State

Oklahoma football takes to the road this weekend, heading to Iowa State and hoping to rebound from a rare loss at home in its Big 12 season opener.

In 82 games against Iowa State, the Sooners have lost just six times, and their .917 winning percentage over the Cyclones is the best by an FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) team against another in a series of at least 50 games.

Few FBS teams have dominated an opponent like the Sooners have done against Iowa State, but that was also the case a week ago when Oklahoma hosted Kansas State, and we all know how that worked out. The Sooners had defeated K-State 76 times in 100 games before last Saturday.

Oklahoma is 76-6-2 all-time against Iowa State. The 70-game win margin is the second most among FBS teams with a 50-game advantage in head-to-head competition.

Since the Big 12 was formed in 1996, Oklahoma is 15-1 against Iowa State and 7-0 in Ames, with 13 of the 15 games ending in double-digit Sooner wins.

Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma just two times since 1961. Both wins were in Norman and one was just three years ago, a 38-31 upset of the then 3rd-ranked Sooners and Baker Mayfield.

Oklahoma has won 24 of its last 25 true road games and hasn’t lost at Iowa State in 24 consecutive games. The last time the Sooners lost a game in Ames was in 1960, the year John F. Kennedy was elected the 35th president of the United States.

The last two Oklahoma games at Iowa State, however, have been much closer than most. OU won both times by 10 points, but also allowed the Cyclones to score at least 24 games in both games. And last year’s contest in Norman was decided by just a single point, 42-41. Iowa State missed a two-point conversion try very late in the game or the outcome might have been different.

Oklahoma dropped to No. 18, from No. 3, in this week’s Associated Press rankings after the loss to Kansas State. This marks just the third time in the last 59 AP polls that the Sooners haven’t been ranked in the top 10. OU fell to No. 17 this week in the Coaches Poll.

Keys for an Iowa State win

Although Oklahoma has won three of the four games against Iowa State with Matt Campbell as the Cyclones’ head coach, all four games have been relatively close. In the last three games between the two teams, there is just a four-point differential.

Junior quarterback Brock Purdy has made 23 starts for the Cyclones and led an Iowa State passing attack that ranked 11th in the nation a year ago. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season, including 27 touchdowns.

Purdy has two of his top three receivers back in 2020. Tight end Charlie Kolar, who is from Oklahoma and went to Norman North High School, and wide receiver Tarique Milton combined for over 1,400 receiving yards in 2019. Both Kolar and Milton caught touchdown passes in the game last season in Norman.

The Cyclones are also able to move the ball on the ground. Sophomore running back Breece Hall leads the Big 12 this season and ranks third nationally, averaging 128.5 yards per game. His four rushing TDs through two games ranks eighth nationally. The speedy running back

Iowa State has played solid defense under Campbell’s reign. The Cyclones rank 35th in the nation defensively, allowing an average of 385 yards in their first two games. ISU is averaging around 50 percent in third-down stops this season.

Senior defensive end JaQuan Bailey is a disruptive force. If he is able to put pressure on young Sooner QB Spencer Rattler and speed up his decision making, it could be a difficult day for the high-powered Oklahoma defense. In the win last week at TCU, Bailey set or tied four school records. He recorded 3.5 sacks in the first half of that game and four tackles for loss in the game.

Keys for an Oklahoma win

Lincoln Riley said it best after last week’s stunning home loss to Kansas State.  Asked what the Sooners need to do to overcome all the mistakes that occurred late in the game and led to the fourth-quarter collapse, the Oklahoma coach said:

"“Play better football — don’t turn the ball over, don’t get punts blocked, don’t have a bunch of penalties on explosive plays.”"

That’s both the long and short of it. This is a very good Oklahoma team that needs to finish out games and not self-destruct on its way to the finish line.

Spencer Rattler was 30 of 41 passing against K-State for 387 yards, but was just 4 of 12 in his final 12 throws. He has thrown eight touchdown passes in two games (four in each), which is tied for second best in the country. His 209.1 passing efficiency rating ranks second. Rattler’s success in his first two career starts at OU is tainted somewhat by the three interceptions he threw against Kansas State.

While the Sooner passing attack appears to be as potent as ever (OU ranks fourth in the country in pass offense), the run game has not been as effective as in past years. True freshman Seth McGowan has been Oklahoma’s most effective runner through two games, averaging 6.1 yards per rush, but as a team the Sooners are averaging just 127 yards per game, a far cry from the 239 yards per game they averaged in leading the Big 12 in that category.

On the other side of the line of scrimmage, OU will try to slow down or takeaway the Iowa State rushing attack by keying of Breece Hall. The Sooners would like to make the Cyclones one-dimensional, pressure Brock Purdy and force him to beat them throwing the football.

Oklahoma needs to be more disciplined on offense and avoid the costly penalties that negated several big plays late in the game and stopped Sooner drives.

The Sooners need to do a much better job of communication in the defensive secondary and not allow receivers to run free and uncovered on deep throws. This was a big contributor to Kansas State’s comeback win.

It goes without saying that the Sooners cannot sustain a minus-four turnover margin and win many games, especially on the road against a good team. On the other hand, it would be a big boost if the OU defense could take some pressure off the offense and can come up with a couple of takeaways of their own.

OU must be careful not to get caught looking ahead to its annual showdown with Texas a week later.

Under Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma has actually played better on the road than at home. The Sooners have won 24 of their last 25 true road games and haven’t lost at Iowa State since 1960.

Key matchup

The Oklahoma secondary against Brock Purdy and the Iowa State receivers. The Sooners are small on the back end and have had difficulty covering taller receivers. Keep an eye on 6-foot, 6-inch ISU tight end Charlie Kolar and how the Sooners defend him.

Bottom line

Iowa State likes playing at home and especially likes playing in the month of October. Since 2017, the Cyclones are 10-1 in October. But this Oklahoma, and the Sooners are 5-1 against the Cyclones in October since 2000. Make it 6-1.

Oklahoma 38, Iowa State 27