Oklahoma football: Projecting how the Big 12 will shake out in 2020

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 02: Head coach Lincoln Riley of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates the Big 12 Championship after defeating the TCU Horned Frogs 41-17 at AT&T Stadium on December 2, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 02: Head coach Lincoln Riley of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates the Big 12 Championship after defeating the TCU Horned Frogs 41-17 at AT&T Stadium on December 2, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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Oklahoma football has won the Big 12 Conference championship 13 times in the league’s 24-year history.

Related Story. Most pivotal, biggest game on Sooners' 2020 schedule. light

Nine different schools have won the conference crown in football, but other than the Sooners, no team has won it more than three times, and three of the nine schools are no longer members of the conference.

Winning conference championships is part of the Oklahoma football DNA. The Sooners have won 49 conference titles in football in their 125-year history. That is more than any Power Five conference team.

It would be easy to project Oklahoma as the conference favorite again in 2020, given that OU has won five consecutive conference titles, but every season, it seems, poses a different set of challenges as well as challengers.

In 2017, TCU challenged the Sooners for Big 12 supremacy. In 2018, Texas made a giant run at the championship, beating OU in the regular season only to lose to the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship rematch. And last season, it was the surprising Baylor Bears who threatened to knock Oklahoma off the throne.

Who will it be in 2020, and can Oklahoma make it a sixth straight season without having to surrender its spot atop the final Big 12 standings?

The Big 12 announced this week that it is moving its annual Football Media Days, the unofficial kickoff of the conference football season every year, to Aug. 3-5.  It was originally scheduled to be held July 20-21 in Dallas. This year, like everything else that has been modified because of COVID-19, the event will be held virtually.

The conference also announced its Preseason All-Big 12 First Team as well as its Preseason Media Poll, projecting Oklahoma as the conference favorite for a fifth straight year and for the 15th time since 2000 as either the outright champion or a division champion..

Our projection takes the preseason projection by the media that cover the Big 12 a step further. Besides projecting the order of finish, we also predict the won-lost record of all of the conference teams.

Our forecast assumes a full schedule of games, although a couple of major conferences have already announced they are eliminating all nonconference games and others are expected to follow. It also assumes the season will be a fall 2020 event.

Here is our assessment, in ascending order,  of what the final Big 12 standings will look like when the final curtain comes down on what is certain to be a very different 2020 college football season.

10. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9, 0-10 in Big 12)

New head coach Les Miles led the Jayhawks to three wins last season, but with just one conference win, Kansas finished last in the Big 12 for a fifth straight season.

The prospects for improving on its 2019 record are not good, although Kansas does have some very talented players on offense in running back Pooka Williams and wide receiver Andrew Parchment. The Jayhawks will have to replace last year’s starting quarterback, Carter Stanley, who graduated after coming off one of KU’s most productive seasons from the QB position.

Kansas had problems scoring a year ago, ranking100th among FBS teams last season, but the Jayhawks had even more trouble preventing their opponents from scoring, ranking 122nd among 130 FBS teams in that category.

Another disappointing football season is in store for Kansas fans.

9. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-10, 1-8 in Big 12)

West Virginia also had a new head coach last season. Neal Brown came from Troy, where he had a lot of success, but his inaugural season with the Mountaineers was a struggle in a rebuilding year. West Virginia showed improvement, though, in its final games, winning two of its last three after losing five in a row.

Former Oklahoma backup quarterback Austin Kendall was replaced as the West Virginia starter nine games into the 2019 season. The Mountaineers historically have had a strong running game, but last season it was among the worst in the country. Averaging under 100 yards per game on the ground, WVU was 128th in the country in rushing offense.

The defense, anchored by Big 12 Preseason Defensive Player of the Year Darius Stills, a nose tackle, is serviceable, but not one of the better Big 12 defensive units.

West Virginia missed a bowl game last season for the first time since 2013. Prospects are not good for postseason play in 2020, either.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7, 3-6 in Big 12)

Texas Tech’s four wins a year ago was only the second time in the past 10 seasons that the Red Raiders have ended the season with so few wins. It was head coach Matt Wells’ inaugural season in Lubbock.

The Red Raiders lost starting quarterback Alan Bowman for most of the 2019 season, but the sophomore signal-caller is back and healthy. They have good players in the skill positions on offense and are capable of moving the ball on anybody in the Big 12, especially when putting it in the air.

Defense has always been the part of the game that has prevented Texas Tech from winning more games. If the Red Raiders are able to make some improvements in what was a dreadful defensive effort a year ago, this team could be a tough matchup on any given week, especially when playing at home at Jones AT&T Stadium.

7. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5, 3-6 in Big 12)

Kansas State was the fourth Big 12 team with a new head coach last season. Chris Klieman took over for the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats lose 15 starters off of last year’s squad, but they do have back three-year starting quarterback Skylar Thompson, who amassed 2,720 yards of total offense and 23 touchdowns last season.

K-State is led on defense by senior linebacker Justin Hughes, who missed all of the 2019 season, and defensive end Wyatt Hubert. The Cats were 44th nationally a year ago in total defense.

Once in the red zone, Kansas State was highly productive on offense last season, scoring on 96 percent of its trips inside of their opponents’ 20-yard line. The problem was, the defense wasn’t able to get stops when the K-State opponents were in the red zone, giving up points at a similar 97-percent clip.

6. Baylor Bears (7-5, 5-4 in Big 12)

Last season’s surprise team, the Baylor Bears, were just one win away from a Big 12 championship last season and a possible trip to the College Football Playoff. The offense is led by senior quarterback Charlie Brewer, who threw for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. He will be missing his favorite target, WR Denzel Mims, however, who has moved on to the NFL.

The defense, which was one of the Big 12’s best last season, took some hits through graduation, but you can expect new head coach Dave Aranda, who was the defensive coordinator for national champion LSU a year ago, to make the necessary adjustments.

Baylor does not have a favorable league schedule in 2020, having to go on the road to play at Texas, at Iowa State and at Oklahoma.

5. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5, 5-4 in Big 12)

Iowa State finished the 2019 season with a winning record for the third consecutive season. The Cyclones were 7-6 last season and six of those games were decided by seven or fewer points.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is not only one of the best signal-callers in the Big 12, but also in the country. He led the Big 12 in passing last season, throwing for 3,982 yards in 2019 and 27 touchdowns. The Cyclone offense ranked 27th among FBS teams last season, and with Purdy directing the offense should be equally productive in 2020.

Nine starters return on a defensive unit that ranked 45th in the country in 2019.

The Cyclones have been a force to be reckoned with during Matt Campbell’s four seasons as head coach, and there are some experts who are saying this coming season could be their best yet.

4. TCU Horned Frogs (7-5, 5-4 in Big 12)

One thing you can always expect from a Gary Patterson-coached team is stout defense. The Horned Frogs took heavy losses defensively after last season, but you know Patterson will find a way to plug some of the deficiencies in a young and inexperienced defensive unit.

Sophomore Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season. He showed his ability as a playmaker, setting school freshman records for passing yards (2007) and touchdowns (15), and he also ran for six touchdowns. He is backed up with some young but talented running backs and a similar situation in the receiving corps.

TCU has not won more than seven games in three straight season, which is highly unusual in the Patterson coaching era, but the Frogs could make a strong run at an eight-win season in 2020.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2, 7-2 in Big 12)

Oklahoma State has all the ingredients to make a legitimate run at the Big 12 championship in 2020. Sophomore quarterback Spencer Sanders returns for his second season. He is still growing in the position. He threw for over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, but also threw 11 interceptions.

Sanders won’t be asked to win games by himself, and he won’t have to with offensive weapons like running back Chuba Hubbard, who posted the 16th best rushing season in FBS history with 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, and wide receiver Tylan Wallace.

After missing the final four games a year ago with a knee injury, Wallace, one of the most explosive wide receivers in college football, is back for his senior season. A second receiving threat is senior Dillon Stoner. OSU also boasts a strong offensive line, which is another element that makes the offense so dangerous.

The Cowboys made marked improvement defensively last season and they return 21 of 22 defensive players from the two-deep roster.

Barring injuries, Oklahoma State should be in the Big 12 title race right to the end. Their final regular-season game, at Texas, is likely to decide at least one of the two teams that will play for the conference championship.

2. Texas Longhorns (10-2, 8-1 in Big 12)

Texas has spent the past couple of seasons promoting themselves as “being back” to a championship level. The truth is, the Longhorns won’t truly be back until they are able to take the Big 12 championship trophy away from archrival Oklahoma. And this season, it will be two teams from the Sooner State that will pose Texas’ biggest challenge.

Head coach Tom Herman overhauled his coaching staff after an 8-5 season a year ago, hiring seven new assistants, including new offensive and defensive coordinators.

When you have the Big 12’s best quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, you will go into every game with a good chance to win. The Longhorns return their top two running backs, but will have to find replacements for their two best receivers a year ago. Ehlinger passed for 3,663 yards and 32 touchdowns and also rushed for 663 yards and seven additional scores.

Texas will change from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defensive front this season in hopes of improving from a No. 97 ranking in total offensive yards allowed (431 yards per game).

The Longhorns will be tested early, having to play at LSU and in the annual Red River rivalry with Oklahoma in the first five games of the season.

As always, Texas continues to recruit well and definitely has the talent. Achieving expectations on the field is what has been holding the Longhorns back. Perhaps this is the year, as strange as it has been thus far, that everything comes into balance for the hungry Horns.

1. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12)

Again in 2020, Oklahoma is loaded with offensive talent, and with the defense continuing to make improvement under second-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, the Sooners are the favorite to win a sixth consecutive Big 12 championship.

Spencer Rattler, the No. 1 quarterback in the country coming out of high school in 2019, is expected to be the new starting quarterback. He has thrown only 11 collegiate passes coming into the 2020 season, but it’s hard to imagine him not being successful with all the weapons surrounding him as well as one of the best offensive lines in college football.

Even with a new starting quarterback for the fourth straight year, the OU offense should barely skip a beat, with Lincoln Riley, one of the best play-callers in the game, directing the Sooner offense.

Improvement on defense will best be measured in how effective the Sooners are in generating takeaways. Grinch wants to see OU double the 11 takeaways it has produced each of the last two seasons. Grinch contends that as many as 24 takeaways leads to nine wins in the bank.

The kicking game is another weapon Oklahoma has at its disposal. Sophomore Gabe Brkic was successful on all 17 of his field-goal attempts last season and did not miss a single extra-point attempt.

dark. Next. Can Sooners dispel enough concerns to legitimize a 2020 title run?

The 2020 Big 12 title is Oklahoma’s to lose.