With postseason plans still on hold, Oklahoma basketball heads into its regular-season finale at TCU on Saturday with the need still to prove some things.
In particular: That the Sooners are NCAA Tournament worthy.
The situation would have been much different had Oklahoma (18-12, 8-9) managed to close out Texas in the final seconds on Tuesday and taken away the dramatics at the end that resulted an improbable Longhorn victory. As it was, the Sooners missed three of four foul shots in the closing seconds, any one of which might have one it, or at least prevented a last-second, buzzer-beater in regulation.
That is something the Sooners are going to have to live with and get past quickly if they want to make it back to the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season.
The game at TCU on Saturday now takes on added importance. The home loss to Texas dropped Oklahoma below .500 in league play, at 8-9. The Sooners need to win at TCU to avoid a losing Big 12 record, which would place them dangerously on the bubble heading into the Big 12 Tournament next week and “too close to call” as far as an NCAA Tournament bid is concerned.
Winning on the road is one obstacle facing Oklahoma in Ft. Worth on Saturday. The other more practical concern is how well the Horned Frogs are playing right now. They are 14-3 at home this season, including wins in their last two home games, against then-No. 17 West Virginia and No. 2 Baylor, and they had No. 1 Kansas on the ropes into the second half at Allen Field House on Wednesday before losing by nine.
The Oklahoma-TCU series in basketball is not a long one, just 28 games total. The Sooners are 28-4 against TCU and 10-2 when playing the Horned Frogs in Ft. Worth, including wins in three of the last four visits. OU won the earlier game this season, 83-63, in Norman, where the Sooners have never lost to TCU in 13 games. Brady Manek scored a career-high 31 points in the Jan. 18 contest at Oklahoma.
Scouting report
TCU
TCU enters Saturday’s game with a 7-10 conference record. A win over the Sooners would give TCU no worse than a 6th-place tie with Oklahoma in the final league standings and could earn them a first-round bye in next week’s Big 12 Tournament.
The Horned Frogs shot 41 percent against an outstanding Kansas defense on Wednesday and were 13 of 29 on three-point shots. Desmond Bane, the Big 12’s second-leading with a 16.4-points-per-game average, and teammate Edric Dennis combined for 9 of 11 from three-point range in the first half of that game.
TCU has three starters averaging at least 10.0 points per game, and is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs average 8.5 made three-pointers per contest, best in the Big 12. When they do put up shots from three-point range, Bane is the deadliest of the group, averaging 43 percent from deep.
The Horned Frogs rank in the middle of the conference in rebounding, but they are one of the better teams in getting offensive rebounds. Two area that have hurt TCU this season are turnovers (the Frogs are the third worst in the Big 12 in committing turnovers) and free-throw shooting. The Horned Frogs shoot just 63 percent as a team from the free-throw line. Of course, the latter deficiency may not matter because teams don’t get to the free-throw line very often against Oklahoma.
Oklahoma
Shooting inconsistency has plagued Oklahoma all season. In the road win over West Virginia last Saturday, the Sooners shot nearly 50 percent. At home against Texas on Tuesday, OU connected just 14 times out of 50 shots for a miserable 28 percent. Kristian Doolittle, Brady Manek and Austin Reaves all scored in double digits in the Texas game, something the trio has done in the same game 13 times this season. The trouble is they are getting little help from the supporting cast.
The OU Big Three combined for 43 of the Sooners’ 51 points this week against the Longhorns. That’s not going to win many games. OU was lucky to have been in the position to win, given the shooting problems and the imbalance in the offensive production.
The Sooners have not been a great rebounding team this season, and they have been outmuscled on the offensive glass far too often. This places a premium on making shots because rarely do the Sooners get more than one shot in an offensive possession. Conversely, Oklahoma gives up too many second chances when they are on the defensive end of the floor.
The formula for an OU win at TCU is the same it has been all year, whether at home or on the road. Make shots, get good minutes and scoring help from the supporting cast, and play tough defense.
That’s been the difference in all eight of Oklahoma’s conference wins this season, and it will be the difference maker if the Sooners are to prevail at TCU on Saturday.
Bottom line
This is a tough one to project. There’s still much to play for by both teams, and TCU has looked really good the past couple of weeks. Something tells me, though, the Oklahoma is going to bounce back with a good game and pull this one out.
Oklahoma 65, TCU 62