Oklahoma basketball: Sooners’ NCAA Tournament hopes still teetering
By Chip Rouse
Oklahoma basketball fans no doubt were breathing a bit easier about the Sooners’ NCAA Tournament chances after the big win on Tuesday over 22nd-ranked Texas Tech.
At the risk of bursting the bubble of many Sooner fans, however, that win alone — Oklahoma’s second over a ranked team this season — probably won’t be enough to secure the Sooners’ place in the 64-team tournament field.
It is probably safe to say that if Oklahoma were not to make it into the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship, the Sooners would have a postseason bid to the NIT, which some like to refer to as the “Not Invited Tournament,” sarcastically referring to teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.
But let’s face it, no team or fan feels good about missing out on the Big Dance. And the NIT, CBI or whatever other postseason acronym is out there, they aren’t the same as what we traditionally know as March Madness.
In his latest Bracketology projections, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has moved the Sooners up to the 11 line from the 12 line, but still has them as one of the “last four teams in” and having to win a play-in game to make the 64-team field. That is not a secure position to be in, and means Lunardi, for one, is looking for more from Oklahoma to give them the edge over one of the other “bubble” teams.
Oklahoma Sooners Basketball
Heading into the West Virginia game this weekend, the final leg in a difficult five-game February stretch in which four of the games were against ranked opponents, the Sooners sit at No. 49 in the NCAA NET rankings, which places OU squarely on the bubble, even with the resume-building win over Texas Tech.
CBS college-basketball analyst Jerry Palm currently projects the Sooners as a 10 seed, but the outcome against West Virginia will surely alter that projection, either up or down.
Oklahoma’s final three regular-season games include at West Virginia, back home for the home finale Tuesday against Red River rival Texas and on the road to close out the 2020 regular season next Saturday at TCU.
Breaking down OU’s NCAA Tournament resume entering the West Virginia game, the Sooners have a good schedule working for them. They have only played eight games against Quad 3 and 4 teams. The NCAA Tournament selection committee uses quadrants to qualify wins and losses and factor in where the games are played (home, road or neutral site) and the ranking of the opponent.
Quad 1 wins are considered of the highest quality and are a major determinant in seeding the teams in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma is 4-9 this season against Quad 1 opponents (teams ranked 1-30, 1-50 at neutral sites and 1-76 on the road), and have a chance to pick up another Quad 1 win at West Virginia.
The Sooners remaining two games are against Quad 2 teams in Texas and TCU. OU is 5-2 against Quad 2 teams and 4-0 against teams at the Quad 3 and 4 levels.
What it all comes down to is Oklahoma must win at least two of their three remaining regular-season contests and probably will need to win at least one game in the Big 12 Tournament two weeks from now to make it into the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season and seventh under head coach Lon Kruger.
Short of this, the Sooners can plan on playing less meaningful games as a postseason participant in the NIT. And that might even be a bold expectation if they take the low road from here on out.