Oklahoma football: Sooners’ ‘best ball’ now becomes mandatory

It was no surprise that, heading into November, the Oklahoma football schedule was going to get appreciably more difficult.

The November lineup included home games with Iowa State and TCU and road contests against a Baylor team that is nationally ranked and having its best season under head coach Matt Rhule and the annual Bedlam battle against in-state rival Oklahoma State in Stillwater. A formidable stretch of games for any major college team — even those in the upper tier of the SEC and Big Ten.

The Sooners’ average victory margin prior to November was 29.8 points. Through three November games, Oklahoma is 3-0, but with an average victory margin of just 2.6 points. The Sooners have won their last three games by one point, three points and four points, respectively.

In the home finale on Saturday night, TCU  held the nation’s top offensive team to just 28 points, Oklahoma’s lowest-scoring game of the season and the first time in 30 consecutive games that the Sooners did not score 34 or more points.

Oklahoma gained 511 total yards against a TCU defense that was leading the Big 12 in terms of fewest yards allowed. Because of three costly turnovers, however, the Sooners managed to put up just 28 points, 21 of which came in the first 18 minutes of the game.

Despite the strong offensive numbers, its was the OU defensive performance, not the offense, that was responsible for preserving the win over a resilient TCU team.

The Sooners are not done with their November gauntlet. They still have the annual in-state rivalry game with Oklahoma State on Saturday, and as most everybody who follows college football closely knows, you can throw season records and past history out the window when longtime rivals go head to head. Expect the unexpected.

This year, the Bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma won’t decide the Big 12 Championship, or even a spot in the conference title game, as it has so many times in the past when the Sooners and Cowboys have played in the final game of the regular season.

OU and Baylor, both with 9-1 records, have already clinched the two berths in the Big 12 Championship game, regardless of what happens on Saturday. But the Sooners are keeping their eye on an even bigger prize — a potential return trip to the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive year — if they can keep winning, first against Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Saturday and again the following week in the rematch with Baylor for the conference championship.

With Minnesota, Penn State and Oregon, all ranked ahead of Oklahoma in this year’s first installment of the College Football Playoff rankings, losing the past two weekends, the Sooners’ slim Playoff chances not only are still alive, but have actually gotten better.

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners will likely move into the No. 7 spot when the new Playoff rankings come out on Tuesday night. That would leave Georgia, Alabama and Utah ahead of the Sooners and all vying for what likely will be the only remaining Playoff spot, assuming LSU, Ohio State and Clemson, the top three teams currently, all win out.

Even if Oklahoma were to win its next two games, though, and capture a fifth consecutive Big 12 crown, there is no assurance that would be enough to get the Sooners into the Playoff, even if the cards were to fall just right — and that’s a giant if — in their favor.

Here is what would still have to happen to be able to make a viable Playoff case for the Sooners:

• First and foremost, Oklahoma cannot lose to Oklahoma State or Baylor.
• LSU must defeat Georgia in the SEC Championship, and probably by double digits.
• A two-loss Oregon must defeat one-loss Utah in the Pac-12 Championship.
• Alabama may fall out anyway because they are not a conference champion and are without QB Tua Tagovailoa the rest of the season, but a loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl would assure it.

If the four scenarios above were all to happen, Oklahoma would be in as good a position as it could hope for, but the final determination would still reside with the CFP selection committee.

It’s still very much a long shot, but the Sooners’ Playoff prospects are improving by the week. All they can control, however, is taking care of their own business. They have to keep winning — no and, ifs or buts.

And winning has not come easy the past three games, which is troubling knowing that Oklahoma is getting ready to play the two biggest games of the season. What’s especially troubling is that two of the past three games have been at home, where the Sooners typically play their best and rarely leave much doubt.

It’s no secret that Oklahoma’s performance on the gridiron has run hot and cold this season. Head coach Lincoln Riley has acknowledged on multiple occasions that the Sooners have yet to put together a complete game for all four quarters.

The Sooners have had great halves of football, like the second half versus Texas, the first half in the Iowa State and TCU games, and particularly the second half in the comeback win at Baylor, but they weren’t able to generate or sustain that same level of performance for four quarters in all of those games.

In the Kansas State game, where Oklahoma’s suffered its only loss of the season, the Sooners gave up 24 unanswered second-half points to fall behind by 25 before rising from the dead late with 18 unanswered points of their own to make it a one-possession game at the end.

That same Jekyll-and-Hyde performance by Oklahoma has been present in all but three of its eight Big 12 games, which has prompted Riley to say, when asked every week about his team’s inconsistent performance:

"“I know that our best ball is still out there, and our team feels like that, too.”"

If this Oklahoma team’s best football is still out there, as Riley says, this would be the perfect time to find it with two critical games dead ahead and the rest of the season riding on it.