Oklahoma basketball: Should Sooners be concerned about an NCAA bid?

At the beginning of the week, Oklahoma basketball appeared to be safely inside the NCAA Tournament field. All the Sooners needed was one win in the Big 12 Championship to all but ensure it.

,And the Sooners were set up nicely to get that victory, which would have put the OU season win total at 20. All Lon Kruger’s group had to do was get by West Virginia, the Big 12’s worst team this season, in the opening round of the conference tournament, and their postseason plans would be secure.

Only, much like the roller coaster ride Oklahoma basketball has been on this season, that is not what happened.

On Wednesday night at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri, the Sooners came up literally an inch short in losing to lowly West Virginia. What appeared to be a game-tying three-point bull’s-eye by OU senior Christian James was later ruled as two points instead of three because replay review showed that James apparently had his toe on the line, albeit by the narrowest of margins.

Oklahoma Sooners Basketball

And just like that, heartbreaking memories were rekindled from a similar incident three years ago in this same tournament, against the same Sooner opponent.

With the final precious seconds ticking off of the clock and Oklahoma trailing the Mountaineers by a basket in the semifinals of the 2016 Big 12 Championship, National Player of the Year Buddy Hield launched a desperation shot from half court that magically found its mark and appeared to have given the Sooners a one-point win. Moments later, however, it was ruled that Hield had not gotten the shot off in time.

The one big difference in those two disturbingly similar situations is that the 2015-16 Sooner team 25-6 when it lost to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament. Despite the loss to West Virginia, that OU squad was a top-10 team and went on to make it all the way to the NCAA Final Four as a No. 2 seed.

This year’s OU team, on the other hand, is 19-13 and just 7-12 against Big 12 opponents, including a pair of losses to the worst team in the league. Going purely by the record, it is hard to imagine that this group of Sooners is worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid. What’s more, no Big 12 team has ever made it into the Big Dance with a league mark worse than 8-10 (which was Oklahoma’s record last season when it got in as a 10 seed).

The Sooners were projected as one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament field less than a month ago, according to ESPN “Bracketology” mastermind Joe Lunardi. By winning four of its final six regular season games, however, including an impressive 13-point win over Kansas, Oklahoma has been gradually improving its NCAA Tournament resume, despite its losing conference record.

At the beginning of this week, Lunardi had the Sooners all the way up to the nine line, but his update on Thursday, after Wednesday night’s games, had OU back to a 10 seed.

While it may appear that Oklahoma is safely in the NCAA Championship version of March Madness, based on Lunardi’s widely followed Bracketology projections, it should also be pointed out that he does not have a vote on the official NCAA Basketball Tournament selection committee. Lunardi’s analysis makes for interesting media copy, but other than that it amounts to nothing more than an educated guess.

The ESPN Basketball Power Index gives OU a 56 percent chance of making it into the 65-team NCAA Tournament field. Had the Sooners defeated West Virginia on Wednesday, however, their chances would have been at 96 percent, according to the BPI metrics.

While the Sooners chances of making the NCAA Tournament field may not be as problematic as other so-called bubble teams, they should hold off on any celebration plans planned in Norman until the final brackets are locked in this Sunday, Until then, Oklahoma will have to wait and hope that any big surprises in the other conference tournaments that are going on are minimal.

If anything, Oklahoma’s tournament resume is boosted by its impressive 12-1 record against nonconference opponents (which included wins over 20th-ranked Wofford, Florida and Creighton) as well as its 12th best strength of schedule, according to the BPI.

So, should the Sooners be worried? Probably not. Should they have some concern? Yes, probably.