Oklahoma basketball: This week may be Sooners final shot at NCAA bid

Selection Sunday is over a month away, but for Oklahoma basketball, this week may be the final shot for the Sooners to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

The Sooners (15-7, 3-6) face 17th-ranked Iowa State on Monday and then entertain No. 18 Texas Tech on Saturday (per this week’s Associated Press poll). With back-to-back, double-digit Big 12 losses on its home floor — by 17 points to Kansas State and a horrific 30 points a week ago to Baylor — Oklahoma is in desperate need of quality wins to complement its stellar 11-1 record through a difficult nonconference schedule.

The Sooners will also get a shot at home against a ranked Kansas team later in the season, but that won’t matter much if they don’t take care of the opportunity immediately in front of them.

Protecting your home court is absolutely critical in a conference as balanced from top to bottom as the Big 12 is this season, something Oklahoma has not been able to do through the first half of the conference season. And the two teams coming to Norman this week won’t make it any easier for the Sooners.

There is no hotter team in the Big 12 right now than Iowa State. The Cyclones are on a three-game winning streak and have won five of their last six games.

Texas gave the Cyclones all they could handle on Saturday with Iowa State holding off the Longhorns by five at Iowa State. Sooner fans can hold out hope that the tight battle with Texas and the quick turnaround with travel will take something out of the Cyclones on Monday.

The Sooners are holding opponents below 40 percent shooting for the season, second best in the Big 12, but that has not been the case lately.

If Oklahoma doesn’t tighten up it defensive pressure and take away second-chances better against Iowa State, the Sooners will be in real danger of suffering another painful blowout before the home fans at what will probably be a near-empty Lloyd Noble Center when the final buzzer sounds Monday night.

Iowa State is the highest scoring team in the Big 12 (79.0) and also the best shooting team (48 percent per game). The Cyclones are beating opponents by a Big 12-best 13.6 points per game, but their two road wins in the Big 12 (at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech) are only by a combined 10 points

Texas Tech, which will be at the LNC on Saturday, was playing as well as any team in the country to start the season, and although they have been a lot more vulnerable in recent weeks, the Red Raiders (17-5, 5-4) still pose a formidable challenge.

One thing that could work in Oklahoma’s favor in this week’s two giant home games, both visiting teams have shown greater vulnerability playing away from home. Iowa State is 2-2 in Big 12 games away from Hilton Coliseum, and Texas Tech is 2-3 in conference road games.

Oklahoma has lost four of its last five conference games, and three of those losses were blowouts. The falloff is deeply concerning to Sooner fans, who as few a three weeks ago saw the OU men climb as high as 20th in the AP poll and projected by “Bracketology’s” Joe Lunardi as a No. 3 seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament.

OK, a three seed in the NCAA Tourney may be a bit over the top, but the fact remains that these same Sooners were playing quality basketball just a month ago, begging the question: What has happened?

Lunardi still has Oklahoma making the 64-team NCAA Tournament field, but now they are down to a projected No. 8 seed and that puts them down in probable one-and-done territory.

The reason for OU’s precipitous decline is pretty simple, actually: They aren’t putting the ball in the basket with enough consistency, they aren’t getting second-chance opportunities, they haven’t been playing with the same defensive intensity they did earlier and they are missing too many free throws. Clean these things up and we won’t be having a different discussion.

If the Sooners aren’t able to knock off at least one of the two teams they host this week, they ate probably going to have to win the Big 12 postseason tournament to earn an invite to the NCAA Tournament.

The next two Oklahoma basketball games could be the biggest of the season as far as the Sooners are concerned. How they handle them will likely determine their postseason chances.