It’s only two weeks into the college season, but Oklahoma football seemingly has settled some preseason concerns and, in so doing, strengthened its standing as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender this season.
Just three weeks ago, the Big 12, of which the Sooners remain the big dogs, was said to be in trouble insofar as its chances of getting a team into this year’s College Football Playoff. At that time, the ESPN College Football Playoff Predictor gave the conference as a whole only a 29-percent chance of placing a team in the CFP, and only a five-percent chance of winning it all if it somehow did make it in.
After back-to-back decisive wins over Florida Atlantic and UCLA to start the 2018 season, the number crunchers and computers in the ESPN Analytics group have modified their position on Oklahoma and the Sooners’ ability and odds on returning to the Playoff.
Very little has changed regarding Alabama, the reigning national champion, but surprisingly, according to this week’s Playoff Predictor, Ohio State has a slightly better chance than Clemson of making it into the Playoff, as well as getting to the championship game and winning it. Part of that could be because of the close call Clemson encountered in Week 2 on the road against unranked Texas A&M.
Then comes the Sooners, who the Playoff Predictor says has a 50-percent chance of getting to the Playoff this season, the same as that of Georgia, OU’s opponent in the national semifinals last season. Oklahoma’s chances of making it beyond the first round and winning the national championship, however, are slightly below that of Georgia (27 to 25 percent to make the championship and 14 to 13 percent to win it), according to the Playoff Predictor.
Of course, as a reminder, this is just based on two games and is sure to change, for better or worse, as we go forward and as conference play commences.
Speaking of the conference, another ESPN analytic tool, the Football Power Index, rates Oklahoma as an overwhelming favorite to win its fourth consecutive Big 12 title this season and 12th in the 23-year history of the conference. The FPI gives the Sooners a 71.5-percent chance of winning the Big 12 and an 18.4-percent chance of winning out.
The FPI, in the words of its administrators, is a “measures of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.” After two games, the FPI surprisingly gives in-state rival Oklahoma State the best chance of catching the Sooners. The Cowboys rank 19th in the Power Index and are given a 10.3-percent chance of winning the Big 12.
West Virginia, ranked 22nd in the current FPI, are given a 6.5-percent chance, and TCU, 29th, are at 4.2 percent, but this could change dramatically depending on how the Horned Frogs do against Ohio State this weekend.