This is a pivotal year for the future of the Oklahoma Sooners football program.
After a third-straight Big 12 title and two College Football Playoff trips in the last three years, second-year head coach Lincoln Riley seems to have all the momentum, but momentum can be a fickle and fragile thing.
A down year – really anything under 10 wins – and people begin to question whether Riley piggybacked off of Bob Stoops and Baker Mayfield last season, what happens at defensive coordinator and which team looks like the future in the Big 12.
A great season – conference title or possible college football playoff berth – and the future is bright at Oklahoma. Riley is a hot young coaching commodity and the Sooners are the program of the future in college football.
So what is the floor for the Sooners’ squad? What is the ceiling? And what has to happen to reach either? Here are the best and worst case scenarios for the 2018 Sooners.
Best case: 14-0, National champions
Yes, the odds have decreased in recent years for a team to survive the college football season without a loss, but it’s not impossible for Oklahoma looking at this schedule. Let’s break down how this can happen for the Sooners.
Against FAU Riley’s game plan is perfect as Oklahoma drives down to score touchdowns on its first four drives. Florida Atlantic tries to load the box, but it does little to slow down the Sooners’ ground game as Oklahoma piles up over 600 yards of total offense. The defense gives up a couple of big plays, but dictates the game as Oklahoma cruises to a 41-17 victory.
In game two UCLA’s spread-run scheme doesn’t impress in Norman thanks to a dominant effort from the Oklahoma defensive line. The Sooners penetrate the Bruin backfield all day and the offense casually rolls up another 40-point performance in a 42-13 win. Parnell Motley gets the Sooner defense a score of its own with a pick-six late in the game. Chip Kelly gets a lesson on exactly how to run an up-tempo college football offense in 2018.
The Cyclones never see Oklahoma coming in Oklahoma’s first road test. While Iowa State tries to run the same cloud-dime defense they did a year ago against the Sooners, Oklahoma’s ground game is way too much to handle. The Sooners control the line of scrimmage and once they get up by three scores in the third quarter, force Iowa State to start airing the ball out. Murray, Sermon and Rodney Anderson all go over 100 yards in a 38-14 statement win for Oklahoma.
Things continue trending in the right direction against an improved Baylor team. Murray continues his maturation as a passer, throwing for more than 300 yards for the first time all season. Anderson scores a pair of early touchdowns and Sermon closes things down with a late long TD run. On defense the Sooners frustrate the Bears and touted Tennessee transfer Jalen Hurd takes his third career loss at the hands of Oklahoma in a 42-20 win.
The Red River Rivalry game starts just like last year with Oklahoma jumping out to a big 21-0 lead, but unlike last season, the dazed Longhorns never recover. The Sooners milk the clock in the second half and play a lights-out defensive game in a 31-10 win over Tom Herman’s team. Riley enjoys a corn dog on the ferris wheel to celebrate. Herman punishes the team by stopping at Love’s instead of Buccee’s on the bus ride back to Austin.
After the bye the Sooners are ranked No. 1 in the country for the first time since 2011 and things just continue to get better. Freshmen are slowly sprinkled in to add more depth on both sides of the ball as Riley plays the new redshirt rule like a fiddle.
The Sooners continue to dominate Gary Patterson with a 35-17 win in Fort Worth, then survive a bit of a first-half scare in Manhattan before pulling away for 44-20 win over the Wildcats. Against Texas Tech Oklahoma’s defense plays its best game of the year so far by holding a high-octane Red Raiders offense to just one touchdown in a 48-10 victory. The whole town of Muleshoe turns up in the stands to cheer on its favorite son in Riley’s first trip back to Lubbock as a head coach.
Oklahoma State doesn’t provide quite the fireworks it did a year ago, but the Cowboys are a stiff test in a 33-21 win. Kansas gives an opportunity for many backup Sooner seniors to say goodbye to Owen Field in a 51-3 victory. The next week Oklahoma continues its recent trend by climbing all over West Virginia 42-21. The city of Morgantown burns couches in effigy of a lost opportunity to play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
What’s better than one win over Texas? How about two? The three-loss Longhorns win a tiebreaker derby and get served up to the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game. In the first Oklahoma-Texas game to take place outside the Cotton Bowl since 1932 the Sooners look every bit the part of national championship contender. They score early, control the ground and the clock and pull out the 31-13 victory. With no corn dogs to be had after, Riley promises his players a round of his famous bacon to celebrate once they return to Norman.
The Sooners draw Washington in the first round of the College Football Playoff. They sack Jake Browning six times on the way to a 28-13 win over the Huskies. With a win over Chris Peterson every Oklahoma fan in America gathers together for a moment of silence as they can finally put the Boise State Fiesta Bowl loss behind them.
The National Championship game sees the Sooners as the betting underdog for the first time all year against Alabama. Oklahoma hits some early big plays thanks to Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown and company and holds off a late charge from the Crimson Tide to win a 34-30 classic. Nick Saban’s frown can be seen from outer space.
Kyler Murray finishes second in the Heisman Trophy voting, but takes home the O’Brien Award before bowing out to play Major League Baseball. Austin Kendall looks ready to step in thanks to a ton of work in second halves of blowout OU wins. Rodney Anderson becomes the first Sooner in history to win the Doak Walker Award. On defense Kenneth Murray finishes as a finalist for the Butkus Award and is named a first-team All American.
The Sooners finish in the top 30 in total defense and top 20 in scoring defense, earning Mike Stoops some vindication after a rough few years at defensive coordinator. Lincoln Riley is proclaimed the new “it” guy in college football. Recruiting becomes easier than ever for Riley as the Sooners finish strong with the No. 1 class in the country.
Worst case: 9-4, Russel Athletic Bowl
One might say 8-5 is the floor, but the Sooners probably have too much talent on both sides of the ball for five losses barring some major injuries, which aren’t a part of this hypothetical situation.
Shaky quarterback first starts to rear its ugly head against Florida Atlantic. Yes, the Sooners pull away in the fourth quarter for a 41-31 win thanks to a strong ground game, but a pair of Kyler Murray interceptions and a completion percentage around 50 percent has fans worried. Devin Singletary runs for over 200 yards against the Sooner defense and at times looks eerily like Nick Chubb did eight moths ago.
Against UCLA the Sooners have to turn to Austin Kendall after Murray’s pick six puts the team in a 14-0 hole in the second quarter. The receivers respond as Oklahoma ekes out a unconvincing 31-24 victory at home. The defense looks lost at times, but takes advantage of a Bruins’ team still learning the ropes. The running game remains the heart of the squad.
After dodging disaster in the previous two games, the wheels finally come off against Iowa State. Despite preaching revenge all week Oklahoma comes up punchless in an early game in Ames. The Cyclones load up the box and force the Sooners to beat them through the air, which Oklahoma can’t do with either quarterback. Kyle Kempt throws for over 300 yards and the Cyclones pull off the 28-24 upset, taking down the goalposts and the Sooners’ hopes at an undefeated season in one shot all before 3 p.m. The whole state of Iowa celebrates well into the afternoon before turning in at their usual 9 p.m. bedtime.
The Sooners recover to beat Army, but don’t look inspiring in front of the home crowd. Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon combine for 300 rushing yards to make up for inconsistent quarterback play (which now is back around to Murray) in a 38-21 victory.
After a two-score victory over Baylor gets the Sooner faithful back off the ledge and Oklahoma back inside the top 15, the Longhorns come into Dallas and control the Sooners in a 24-14 win. Oklahoma loses the battle on the line of scrimmage and Sam Ellinger runs for 100 yards and throws for 200 as calls for Mike Stoops’ job get louder.
Things get a little better in the next two weeks as Oklahoma takes down a pair of tough opponents in TCU and Kansas State 38-30 and 41-34. Murray starts to look like he might be the guy as Riley shifts his focus even more to the ground game.
Momentum picks up as Oklahoma takes down Texas Tech 35-21 on the road and Oklahoma State 33-24 at home. The Sooners get their first 50-point performance of the year by knocking off Kansas 51-14 and are just one win away from creating a three-way tie for second place in the Big 12.
Unfortunately Oklahoma can’t keep up with Will Greier and West Virginia in a 45-31 loss in Morgantown.
The Sooners have to watch the Big 12 Championship game at home as Tom Herman and the Longhorns take on West Virginia.
Oklahoma goes on to put in an uninspiring performance against Virginia Tech at the Russell Athletic Bowl and falls 34-24 to finish the season at 9-4.
The offense is good, but not great as quarterback play never really gets on track. Murray finishes the season as the starter mostly because of his ability on the ground.
The defense never gets in sync as safety play plagues the secondary and mental mistakes continue to pile up. Mike Stoops is fired at the end of the year and Riley is left looking to either Kendall, Tanner Mordecai or true freshman Spencer Rattler to lead his offense in the future. Pundits and potential recruits alike question which direction this team is trending going into the future.