Oklahoma football: Five bold not-so-great predictions for the 2018 Sooners
By Chip Rouse
Oklahoma will lose as many as three games in 2018
Oklahoma had an over/under win projection of 9.5 in some betting circles a year ago and wound up winning 12 games. The ESPN Football Power Index projects 10.5 wins for the Sooners in 2018, and that is the highest projected win total of any other Big 12 team heading into the season.
The Sooners have seven home games in 2018, including conference games with Kansas State and in-state rival Oklahoma State. They have only three true road games in their 12-game regular-season schedule, but two of those are against TCU and West Virginia, two teams that some believe could contend for the Big 12 title. OU also has its annual neutral-site showdown with archrival Texas in Dallas.
Only one of the Sooners’ first five games of the season are away from Norman (game three of the season, on Sept. 10, at Iowa State, the only Big 12 team to beat Oklahoma in the last two seasons).
There is a good chance OU will be unbeaten through the first five games in 2018, but that is when things start to get much trickier for the Sooners. The annual Red River rivalry game with Texas always seems to defy logic, and could easily go either way this season. Oklahoma has won three of the last four games between these two longtime rivals, but only by a combined eight points.
Two weeks after the Red River game, the Sooners are back home to host Kansas State.. Oklahoma has won four of the last six games against Bill Snyder and the Wildcats, but the two losses were both in Norman and were two of only nine total losses by the Sooners at home in the 18 seasons Bob Stoops was head coach.
OU goes to Lubbock, Texas, the week after Kansas State, another very tough place to play regardless of Texas Tech’s record.
I believe the Sooners will stumble in at least one of the three games with TCU, K-State and Texas Tech, with two of those games on the road.
Next comes Oklahoma State and Bedlam, which will be contested in Norman this season. The Sooners have dominated the Cowboys in this series but, once again, we’re talking about a rivalry game, in which conventional wisdom gets tossed out the window.
Kansas, which has won one Big 12 game in three years, should pose little trouble for the Sooners, especially at home.
The Sooners final regular-season game, on the road at West Virginia, may be their toughest test of 2018. The Mountaineers have arguably the best quarterback in the Big 12 in Will Grier and two of the best wide receivers.
Given what we know now, there is at least a 50/50 chance Oklahoma will lose in Morgantown. If so, that could leave OU with three conference losses, which clearly would knock them out of the national championship picture but also most likely would jeopardize their chances of playing for a fourth consecutive Big 12 crown.