If Joe Lunardi is already making projections for next season’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket, you know ESPN’s Football Power Index is well out ahead of that, projecting conference champions and College Football Playoff contenders for the 2017 season.. The answer to that is yes and yes – and a third yes for the No. 3 national ranking of Oklahoma football in the early preseason version of the Football Power Index.
To say the Football Power Index likes the Sooners’ chances of prevailing as Big 12 champions for a third consecutive season is somewhat of an understatement. The stat heads who grind through the data that makes up the FPI project that Oklahoma not only will win the Big 12 again next season, but will do so handily.
The spring football version of the Preseason FPI gives OU the best chance to win its conference of any of the teams who are members of a Power Five conference.
According to the current FPI projections, the Sooners have a 77 percent chance of winning the Big 12 this coming season, which also means that OU will play in (92 percent chance, according to the FPI) and win the Big 12 Championship game, which is being reinstated in the 2017 season.
The team FPI says will be the Sooners’ biggest challenger for the conference crown is TCU, with a 35 percent chance of coming out on top.
That’s the good news for Sooner fans with spring football practice underway on campuses from coast to coast. The not-so-good news is that Oklahoma has to travel to Columbus, Ohio, for a showdown with mighty Ohio State, currently the top-ranked team in ESPN’s Football Power Index.
FPI gives the Buckeyes a 73 percent chance of winning the Sept. 2 contest against the Sooners.
It doesn’t take the FPI projections to tell us that the four participants in the 2017 College Football Playoff will come from the Power Five conferences. In all likelihood, the Playoff teams will have one or fewer losses.
If that were the case, and if no conference was represented by more than one team, the Pac 12 would likely be the conference left out, according to the spring FPI projections. The probability of the Pac-12 champion having one or fewer losses in 2017 is 32 percent. The next lowest is the Big 12 at 39 percent.
Next: Sooners Set to Reload, Not Rebuild in 2017 Season
FPI says Ohio State and the Big Ten have the highest chance of finishing the 2017 regular season undefeated or with just one loss (80 percent). Next is the SEC (47 percent), then the ACC champion (41 percent).