The statistical comparisons between the two combatants in the 2016 edition of Bedlam football (Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State) are strikingly similar, which on paper would indicate that the rivalry showdown in Norman on Saturday should be a closely fought affair.
Consider the national rankings comparisons: Total offense: OU 3rd, OSU 16th; total defense: OU 91st, OSU 89th; third-down offense: OU 4th, OSU 39th; Red Zone offense: OU 25th, OSU 33rd; Red Zone defense: OU 23rd, OSU 27th.
The largest differences are in turnover margin, where Oklahoma State (plus nine) ranks 12th in the country and Oklahoma (takeaways and giveaways all even at 16 each) 68th, and in rushing yardage, with the Sooners ranked 25th in the country and the Cowboys 54 spots lower at No. 79 nationally.
One stat that could be particularly telling in this game is which team is leading on the scoreboard at the half. Oklahoma has been ahead at halftime in all nine of its wins this season and has a record of 167-11 in the Bob Stoops era in games in which the Sooners have gone to the locker room with the lead after the first 30 minutes of play. That’s a winning percentage of 94 percent.
The Sooners have scored 240 of their 498 total points this season in the first two quarters, outscoring their 2016 opponents 290 to 240 in the opening half. That margin tails off considerably over the final two quarters, particularly in the fourth quarter, where opponents have outscored Oklahoma 94-83.
Oklahoma State also has scored the majority of its points this season in the opening half (240 to 177 by opponents), and the Cowboys scoring margin against their opponents in the third and fourth quarters is 48 points better than OU’s.
The Sooners have been more productive in the scoring column in the first half this season than their in-state rivals. Oklahoma has scored 298 first-half points to the Cowboy’s 240.
All of which leads me to conclude: Pay attention to the halftime score in Saturday’s Bedlam game.