On paper, Oklahoma vs. Kansas in football in 2016 – or pick your year, for that matter – does not appear to be a game that will offer many surprises.
Oklahoma is favored by 40 points playing at home against the bottom-dwelling Jayhawks, who actually are better this season than they have been since former OU assistant Mark Mangino left the head-coaching post in Lawrence back in 2009.
Mangino, who joined Bob Stoops from Kansas State when Stoops became head coach at Oklahoma in 1999 and was the Sooners’ offensive coordinator in the Sooners’ national championship season in 2000 and again in 2001, posted a winning record in eight seasons at Kansas.
The Jayhawks were 50-48 under Mangino. Since then, they have gone 12-60 overall and have won just three of 57 games in the Big 12, including four losses this season.
Kansas has not beaten a Big 12 opponent in the last 16 games, and they are highly unlikely to stop that skid Saturday night in Norman, where Oklahoma has lost just nine times in 18 seasons under Stoops.
A Kansas upset in this game would certainly go down as one of the biggest in the 107 games between these two longtime conference foes and, without question, one of the biggest in college football in 2016.
That aside, though, there may be a few other things in this year’s game with Kansas that will surprise fans.
Joe Mixon, who will start at running back for the Sooners for a second straight week because of an injury to Samaje Perine, exploded for a career-high 263 rushing yards last weekend at Texas Tech, and he didn’t stop there, delivering another 114 receiving yards. Kansas has one of the worst run defenses in the Big 12, so it would be natural to see Mixon have another big day this Saturday.
Mixon may indeed put up big numbers against Kansas, but I would be surprised if he gets as many touches carrying the ball as he did against Texas Tech.
This week’s game should not be nearly as close as the one a week ago with the Red Raiders. With Perine out, the last thing the OU coaches and Sooner fans want to have happen is an injury to one of their big offensive weapons, especially with big games still ahead in the regular season.
The same may be true for the involvement leading receiver Dede Westbrook. This is a game that gives the Sooners the opportunity to involve other young receivers and boost their confidence, again with several giant games straight ahead.
Baker Mayfield will lead the Sooner offense, but I would expect Bob Stoops to sit him in favor of backup Austin Kendall if the Sooners are up by 21 or more points in the fourth quarter to avoid risking an unnecessary and costly injury.
Oklahoma has employed 20 different players in defensive roles this season, trying to find the right combinations and because of injuries. With all the criticism that has been leveled on the OU defense this season, most of it deserved, I believe the Sooner defenders will come out with a big chip on their shoulders against Kansas and leave us shaking our heads, wondering why they can’t play that way every week.
I expect to see more aggressive play from the Oklahoma defensive unit, and with Kansas leading the country in turnovers that should create opportunities for some big plays on the defensive end.
Finally, remember how well the halfback pass play with Joe Mixon worked against Kansas State in the last Oklahoma home game? Look for that play to come out of the bag again on Saturday night, along with a couple more surprising wrinkles on offense.