Stormin in Norman
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Who Hasn’t Given up on Oklahoma Football?

By Chip Rouse

Sep 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) hands off to running back Samaje Perine (32) during the game against the Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) hands off to running back Samaje Perine (32) during the game against the Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sooner fans could sure use a confidence booster after a disappointing start to the Oklahoma football season.

If you have been paying attention to all the talk and editorial criticism about how Bob Stoops and the Sooners have once again tripped all over their high expectations, you get the overwhelming impression that this team will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack in Big 12 football this season.

What’s even more ominous is the idea that first impressions are generally lasting impressions.

We’re talking about a team that was a dominant favorite to win the 2016 conference crown in a preseason vote of media who cover the Big 12. The Sooners received 24 of 26 first-place votes. TCU, the team the Sooners are matched up with today, garnered the remaining two votes.

The two major human polls (Associated Press and the Coaches Poll) may have bounced Oklahoma out of the top 25, but the ESPN Football Power Index is sticking with the Sooners, at least through one more big challenge, which the reigning Big 12 champions have in front of them at 21st-ranked TCU.

Nov 21, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Aaron Green (22) runs as Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Jordan Evans (26) defends during the game at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 21, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Aaron Green (22) runs as Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Jordan Evans (26) defends during the game at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /

The Sooners are ranked a highly respectable No. 12 in this weeks FPI rankings. By contrast, the FPI has the Horned Frogs in the No. 25 spot, despite owning a 3-1 record to begin the 2016 season.

TCU has won 15 of its last 16 games at Amon G. Carter Stadium, but that one loss came in game two this season, a double-overtime loss to Arkansas. It should also be noted, however, that Oklahoma has won its last seven true road games.

The FPI doesn’t seem to care that TCU has the better record and is playing the Sooners at home. Oklahoma is a 3.5-point favorite, according to the FPI projections and has a 60 percent chance of defeating the Horned Frogs on their home turf.

Sharon Katz of ESPN analytics had this to say about TCU hosting the Sooners:

"“With both teams off to slower-than-expected starts, a number of other teams have climbed into the Big 12 discussion, but this may still prove to be one of the most important conference games of the season.“The Sooners have lost two games against good opponents, so FPI isn’t ready to give up on them yet.”"

We’ll shortly find out how prescient this projection is.

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