Oklahoma Basketball: How Far Is Far for OU’s 2016 NCAA Run?

Oklahoma basketball as a participant in the NCAA Tournament has been a tale of two different extremes over the past couple of decades.

The Sooners have smelled some of the roses, making it all the way to the Final Four (2002), to the Sweet 16 (2015) and the Elite Eight or regional final (2003, 2009), but they also have been knocked out of the tournament in their opening game (2001, 2006, 2013, 2014).

So that begs the question: What will the fate be of this Oklahoma Sooners team, which all season long has been ranked among the top eight in all of college basketball, and for several weeks presided as the No. 1 team in the Associated Press Top 25?

Oklahoma went undefeated in its first 12 games this season. The Sooners suffered their first loss of the season in the triple-overtime thriller with Kansas, which was featured in a national Monday night broadcast. Over the next 19 games, however, all against opponents out of the Big 12 Conference, OU’s record was just 13-6, and in the month of February, the Sooners split eight games.

The Sooners should make it through the opening weekend of this year’s NCAA Tournament field, but after that, as for all of the tournament teams, the pathway to the Final Four becomes considerably more dicey, especially if the seedings hold true to form.

This Sooner is a veteran squad. Four of the starters have been on the court together for over 100 consecutive games in the past three seasons, and they have been to the NCAA Tournament all three years, earning a higher seed every season. They have the moxy, the talent and the offensive balance, not to mention arguably the best player in the country in Buddy Hield, to make a long tournament run in 2016.

Trouble is, we’ve also seen some worrisome warts from this team down the homestretch in the regular season, be it inconsistency on offense, fatigue from a long season, poor ball security, limited bench contribution and not being able to close out games in the late going. Anyone of these vulnerabilities could spell doom for the Sooners in the postseason.

OU showed in its Friday Big 12 semifinals contest with then No. 9-ranked West Virginia that other players can step up if Hield has a down game. But let’s be candid for a moment: The Sooners will go as far in this year’s NCAA Tournament as their superstar can take them.

That is not to say that all the burden will rest on Hield’s shoulders, but rather that with all the defensive game planning be directed at denying him the ball and limiting his offensive looks, Hield is going to have to get some scoring support from his teammates for the Sooners to go far in this tournament.

For me, though, the three biggest keys that will determine the plight of the Oklahoma Sooners in the 2016 NCAA Men’s Tournament boil down to:

• Scoring consistency and not relying so much on the long ball at the expense of opportunities to get to the rim and perhaps pick up a foul in the process. Buddy Hield scored a high percentage of his 39 points against Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament not on jump shots from the perimeter, but on dribble drives to the basket.
• Ball security. The Sooners have demonstrated in several games this season that are not very good handling the ball against aggressive defensive play. Giving up too many fast-break points off of turnovers is a quick recipe for disaster. That was a huge problem for Oklahoma in its last three regular-season starts. If the Sooners don’t get this corrected, their stay in the NCAA Tournament could be a very short one.
• Maintain momentum late. Oklahoma has a number of come-from-behind wins among its 25 wins this seasons. Late in the regular season, however, the Sooners have allowed their opponent to seize the momentum late and take over games in which OU seemingly was in control. Allowing opponents double-digit scoring differentials late in games in something the Sooners can ill afford during March Madness, when every outing is an elimination game.