Oklahoma vs. Baylor: Play in the Paint Could Decide This One
By Chip Rouse
The good thing about Saturday’s Oklahoma vs. Baylor Big 12 matchup is that the game is an early-morning tip.
Why do I say that? Simple, really. This is a game the currently No. 1-ranked Sooners can’t afford to lose, and having to play a very physical Baylor team – and, lest we hasten to point out, another nationally ranked opponent – on its home hardwood is an extremely tall order.
An early start will help take part of the advantage the home team enjoys away because of the likely late arrival of the crowd on an 11 a.m. Saturday morning tip. If Oklahoma can get off to a good start from the opening tip and take early control of the game, it will take the home crowd out of the contest or, at a minimum, neutralize the crowd affect.
The Sooners, now 15-2 on the season and 4-2 in the Big 12 after losing Monday night at 19th-ranked Iowa State, do not want to allow the loss to the Cyclones turn into a second consecutive defeat, which is why the game with Baylor might be even more important to the OU basketball season than having to go play at Iowa State just hours after being elevated to the No. 1 ranking in the country.
The big irony of the Baylor game is that the Sooners come in as the top-ranked team in the country, while the hometown Bears sit at the top of the conference standings with a 5-1 league record. Baylor’s only conference loss came at Kansas in a 102-74 Jayhawk blowout. One of the five Baylor Big 12 victories was a five-point win at Iowa State, where OU was not as fortunate.
One of the positives that came out of the Oklahoma loss to Iowa State on Monday night was Isaiah Cousin’s season-best offensive performance with 26 points, including four of five from behind the three-point arc.. It was just the second time in the past five games the Sooner senior had reached double digits in the scoring column. The Sooners will need another strong performance from Cousins to ensure success against Baylor.
Buddy Hield rebounded from a season-low 17-point game with West Virginia and led the Sooners with 27 points at Iowa State. It goes without saying that Oklahoma needs Buddy to be Buddy on Saturday against the league-leading Bears.
Oklahoma and Baylor split their season series a year ago with each team winning on its home court, but the Sooners hold own a 32-7 record against the Bears in the Big 12 era, which is now in its 20th year. The Sooners also have been successful against Baylor in Waco, where OU is 18-6 all-time. The potential bad news this time around: The Bears are a perfect 12-0 at home this season and have lost just twice at home in two seasons.
Baylor, which sports a 15-3 overall mark – its three losses coming to Oregon, Texas A&M and Kansas – becomes the fifth ranked team Oklahoma has faced in its first seven conference games and the sixth top-25 team the Sooners have gone up against this season. OU is 3-2 against ranked teams in 2015-16. Baylor is ranked 13th in this week’s Associated Press poll.
After Baylor, the schedule finally opens up some for the Sooners. But first things first: OU must first deal with the big bad Bears before looking ahead in the schedule to four of the next six games taking place at Lloyd Noble Center.
Three Key Factors to Keep an Eye on in the OU-Baylor Game
Rebounding and points in the paint: Despite leading the Big 12 in rebounding, the Sooners were beaten badly on the boards in the loss to Iowa State. The Cyclones had 13 offensive rebounds against OU and outscored the Sooners in the paint by a 20-point 38-18 margin. If Baylor wields that kind of dominance at the rim, Oklahoma is going to be in deep trouble and likely will go down to defeat for a second consecutive game, and after being ranked No. 1 in the same week.
Ryan Spangler and Khadeem Lattin: Oklahoma’s two frontcourt warriors combined for just just 10 rebounds and a total of two points against Iowa State. It appears Isaiah Cousins has snapped back from his multi-game shooting slump, but the Sooners cannot afford to have their two big men disappear in games. Oklahoma plays at its best when it performs with offensive balance, coupled with Spangler and Lattin playing strong at the rim and on the boards at both ends of the court.
Oklahoma settling too much on jump shots: The Sooners are the best three-point-shooting team in the Big 12 and one of the best in the country, hitting 46 percent of their three-point tries. Half of OU’s 66 field-goal attempts at Iowa State were from three-point territory. Fortunately, OU hit 17 of its 32 three-point shots against the Cyclones, but there is great danger relying on three-point accuracy and not driving and finishing more at the rim. The Sooners had a total of just seven free throws against the Cyclones. That is partly a function of settling for jump shots and not penetrating into the paint more often.
My pick: Oklahoma 84, Baylor 75 – I look for the Sooners to rebound from their “Big Monday” loss at Iowa State and grind out a hard-nose win in Waco. I believe this game will be close for a while, but for Oklahoma to take command in the second half and hold off Baylor to win by its most comfortable margin in a couple of weeks. The Sooners last three contests have been decided by five or fewer points.