Why the Sooners – and the Big 12 – Need A Healthy Texas Longhorns

Sep 12, 2015; Austin, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns fans react against the Rice Owls during the third quarter at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas beat Rice 42-28. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Many in Sooner Nation – and other current and former Big 12 fan bases – are probably delighted at the ongoing travails the Texas Longhorn athletics program is enduring. Many see this as the well-deserved and inevitable comeuppance of a program that had grown arrogant and intolerable to coexist with. But before getting too comfy enjoying the burnt orange behemoth’s misery, Sooners fans and the Big 12 at large should view these developments with some caution. The very survival of the Big 12 conference may depend on how well Texas athletics recovers from its current tailspin.

Jan 6, 2014; Austin, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns president Bill Powers (left) and head football coach Charlie Strong (center) and athletics director Steve Patterson (right) speak at a press conference in the Centennial Room of Belmont Hall at Texas-Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Bids Adieu to Patterson

On Tuesday, according to multiple sources, University of Texas President George Fenves fired athletic director Steve Patterson, ending a tumultuous 22-month reign that saw Patterson seemingly alienate just about everyone involved with the program, from employees to fans to the all-important big money boosters.

It is yet another blow for an athletics department that not so long ago was viewed by many as a model for the entire nation.

As the Texas administration begins its search for a permanent AD replacement, this cannot bode well for the long-term job security of head football coach Charlie Strong, whose team’s recent struggles against top-flight competition dating back to last season have been Longhorn Nation cannon fodder for months.

New athletic directors typically like to start with a clean slate, and that begins by ensuring they don’t inherit someone else’s headache. Strong must turn things around on the field, and quickly. But those delighting in this turn of events should consider that the repercussions of ongoing turmoil at Texas could reverberate far beyond the Forty Acres.

Jul 21, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Big 12 trophy reflecting the new logo is displayed during the Big 12 Media Day at the Omni Dallas. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

A Reeling Texas Means a Reeling Big 12

Last season, as Texas floundered to a final 6-7 record, the big news coming out of the Big 12 Conference was the College Football Playoff Committee’s snub of a very strong TCU team when the final selection day came along. TCU’s demolition of Ole Miss in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl strongly suggested that perhaps the Playoff Committee snubbed the wrong team.

The lack of a league championship game was widely blamed for the Selection Committee’s Big 12 snub. But, it also stands to reason that the overall level of Big 12 competition also weighed heavily with the Committee. In 2014, Texas sank and OU limped to a disappointing 8-5 campaign; only Baylor and TCU lived up to expectations.

Pollsters are remembering the Big 12’s tepid performance in 2015: The first AP poll had TCU at #2, Baylor at #4 and OU at #19. No other Big 12 teams appeared. Contrast this performance with the SEC, which had three teams in the top ten (Alabama, Auburn and Georgia) and seven teams in the top 25.

A lot can certainly happen between now and selection day. But if the Playoff Committee is once again tasked with evaluating a Big 12 comprised of Baylor, TCU and everyone else, versus other more balanced and competitive conferences, the Big 12 may once again find itself on the outside looking in come playoff time. But if Texas and OU, for starters, put together competitive seasons and challenge for a conference title, the tide may turn in the Big 12’s favor.

Recruits Remember

Successful football programs need great coaching, but above all else they need great recruits. Without talent, even the most brilliant coaching minds cannot remain competitive. College football is a talent arms race, and those with the biggest arsenals flourish.

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Back in 2006, the Texas Longhorns had the No. 5-ranked recruiting class (Oklahoma had the ninth-best class that year). Even though it’s early in the recruiting process, 2016 is not shaping up too well for the Big 12: Texas has the 54th-ranked class, and OU the No. 53 at this stage of the process. Texas Tech (go figure) leads all Big 12 schools so far with the No. 22 class. Clearly, there has been a steep drop off in the recruiting trail for the Big 12.

Moving forward, if Texas, Oklahoma and other Big 12 programs continue to struggle on the recruiting trail, that malaise will affect the Big 12’s competitiveness, which in turn will affect the conference’s standing with the College Football Playoff Committee. Eventually, even current standard-bearers TCU and Baylor may not be able to withstand the effect of repeated playoff snubs, because the best recruits will not want to come to schools that don’t get an opportunity to play for championships.

However, if and when Texas turns it around, recruiting may once again heat up for the Big 12. Ditto for Oklahoma, and the rest of the conference. Healthy recruiting across the board is healthy for all schools because it builds buzz around the conference. And given that most Big 12 schools recruit the state of Texas heavily, there’s no reason why the conference can’t consistently achieve great recruiting rankings.

So…those other Big 12 fanbases who delight in Texas’ misfortunes – and to a lesser extent, Oklahoma’s – should curb their enthusiasm and understand the sobering realization that as Texas goes, so does the Big 12.

The Texas A&M Aggies? Finding reasons why they should be upset about troubles in Longhorn Nation might be a shade more difficult.

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