The win target Oklahoma needs to reach to make College Football Playoff in 2025

Kelley Ford's KFord Ratings projected the win total that every team needs to enter the discussion of being an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff in 2025, and based on this, the Oklahoma Sooners can actually afford to slip up more than you might think thanks to a loaded schedule.

KFord Ratings does not guarantee CFP appearances with this win total, but to legitimately be considered in December, the Sooners need to notch at least nine wins, according to KFord Ratings. That would hypothetically give the Sooners three losses to give while needing a 9-3 record.

OU joined fellow SEC programs Texas, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Auburn that also need to reach that threshold. According to KFord Ratings, Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State need only eight wins, which was the lowest total set. Most programs throughout the country, though, especially outside of the SEC, need double-digit wins.

Kelley Ford gives win marker for Sooners' CFP berth

The primary factor in KFord Ratings' projection is strength of schedule, which the CFP announced on Wednesday will actually be a metric in deciding the 12-team field this season. However, KFord's projections can't take into account who those wins and losses come against or how they happen. For instance, Alabama might have gotten in last year had the Crimson Tide lost to OU on a last-second play rather than getting dominated.

Regardless of what the CFP committee claims, the logo on a helmet also matters. If an eight-win SEC team really is going to get in, although KFord said Vanderbilt could get in with that total, there's no way Vandy gets in over Alabama or OU or Texas if one of those also has eight wins.

Along with the win-total chart, KFord Ratings also put out a table with how many mulligans a team can afford or how many upsets it needs to stay in CFP contention. Based on preseason spreads, the Sooners need just one upset in their nine wins to enter CFP discussion, according to KFord. If OU really does tally nine wins, then more than one will definitely be considered an upset.

With all that, nine wins certainly seems like a more difficult task after the Sooners went 6-7 last season. Even just three more wins are hard to come by in the SEC, and the Sooners likely need 10 to really be a lock. However, it is nice to know that the Sooners don't need even need to be close to perfection to get a shot at a national title.

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