Why Oklahoma getting No. 1 transfer John Mateer is not guaranteed

Maybe we put the Schooner before the horse.

Sooner Nation rejoiced on Monday when Washington State quarterback John Mateer officially entered the transfer portal and immediately became the No. 1 transfer prospect available according to every major recruiting service.

The assumption was Mateer will follow his former offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, from Washington State to Oklahoma, where Arbuckle became the OC earlier this month.

But on Tuesday, On3's Pete Nakos reported that Miami has also emerged as a possibility for Mateer's next destination, competing with the Sooners for the top transfer prospect.

Mateer led all of FBS with 44 total TDs this season and is in the top 16 in both passing TDs and passing yards. His success in his first season starting as a sophomore escalated Mateer from a once three-star recruit with one FBS offer to the top prospect in the country.

Those accolades obviously attracted many programs, especially after Mateer officially entered the portal.

At OU, Mateer would have the luxury of familiarity in the same offensive system he thrived in if he follows Arbuckle to Norman, but in the age of NIL, money could talk louder elsewhere. Although, 247Sports' CougFan reported that "an unnamed SEC school" offered Mateer "an NIL package of about $3 million," which most assumed was OU.

That $3 million offer easily outdid Washington State's expected $1 million package, but other programs, such as Miami, have much deeper pockets than the Cougars.

Miami also has more immediate talent that would surround Mateer as a top-15 team. Ironically, Mateer got the starting quarterback job for the Cougars after last season's starter, Cam Ward, transferred to Miami last year.

Ward thrived in his only season with the Hurricanes and emerged as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He led all of FBS with 36 passing TDs and was second in the country with 4,123 passing yards. Now, Ward is one of the top prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft class and is projected to be a first-round pick.

Mateer has near guarantees at both of his final two reported options. At OU, he knows he can exceed in Arbuckle's system and will presumably have even more support than he did at Washington State. But at Miami, he witnessed firsthand that the program transformed the guy once in front of him into a Heisman finalist and first-round draft pick.

Now, Arbuckle must recruit Mateer again, but this time with a lot more competition.