In a way, at least historically, the Oklahoma Sooners could actually have an advantage in the Red River Rivalry if they're forced to play backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. instead of John Mateer, who's questionable with a right hand injury.
Sooners on SI's John Hoover recently did a deep dive on how quarterbacks have fared in their first time starting in the Red River Rivalry for both OU and the Texas Longhorns. And the results were not good for Red River rookies.
First-time quarterbacks have struggled for Oklahoma and Texas in Red River Rivalry
Expected starting quarterbacks for both teams -- OU's Mateer and Texas' Arch Manning -- will make their first starts in the Red River Rivalry at 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday if Mateer is able to return just 17 days after having surgery on his throwing hand. If not, though, despite being the backup most of this season and last for OU, then Hawkins will start the Red River Rivalry for the second time already as a sophomore.
Hawkins took over as QB1 midseason last year and became the first freshman to ever start at QB for the Sooners in the Red River Rivalry. As Hoover's analysis predicts, Hawkins struggled and the Sooners failed to even reach the end zone in a 34-3 blowout. However, that could just be growing pains to make Hawkins more prepared than any other option on Saturday.
According to Hoover, since 1990, quarterbacks making their first start in the Red River Rivalry against a QB more experienced in the environment are 5-15-1. All five, though, were Sooners in Justin Fuente (1996), Sam Bradford (2007), Jalen Hurts (2019), Spencer Rattler (2020) and Dillion Gabriel (2023).
Agreeably, though, three instances were outliers, as Hoover pointed out. Hurts and Gabriel might not have had experience in the Red River Rivalry, but they were seasoned veterans from the Transfer Portal, with Hurts even playing in a national championship game before. Rattler also played inside a Cotton Bowl Stadium that was at 25% capacity, and the atmosphere is what makes this game so unique.
That leaves just Fuente and Bradford getting wins in standard circumstances. Those aren't good odds for Manning if Hawkins gets the nod, especially considering Manning would be the first Longhorn to ever accomplish the task. And not only did first-time starters lose, but they struggled mightily, including Josh Heupel, who threw three interceptions in 1999, Vince Young going scoreless for Texas in 2004, Landry Jones getting blown out in 2009 and Kyler Murray falling short in a shootout in 2018.
However, if Mateer is a go, then it's all a wash, and no matter what history says, Mateer is still the Sooners' best option right now.