Barely over a month ago, I predicted the Oklahoma Sooners to go 11-1 during the regular season and return to the College Football Playoff. Boy, did reality strike in September.
We've learned a lot about the college football landscape as a whole heading into Week 5. Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss are all better than most expected, but most importantly for us, the Sooners are nowhere near the level we hoped they would be at.
The Sooners sit at 2-2 during their bye week with road losses to Michigan and Georgia. A few weeks ago, OU fans really wouldn't have been all that disappointed about those results or even felt defeated about the rest of the season. Actually seeing OU get to this point, though, is what has Sooner Nation gloomy.
It seems nothing has changed for the Sooners' offense. There were expectations that it would be better with a healthy John Mateer, which is what prompted national title hopes for 2026. Instead, the unit might even be worse.
Gone are the CFP dreams, and now it's just hoping the Sooners make a bowl game, because while OU has fallen short, most of the teams on its schedule have overachieved.
Using what has unfortunately been revealed about the Sooners in their first four games, the bye week is a good time to predict the rest of Oklahoma's schedule, which includes six teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Oct. 10 vs Texas Longhorns: Loss
Next is No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry. Wild things can happen in any rivalry game, and the Sooners are due at the Cotton Bowl, but it's just ignorant to believe in OU against a Texas team that has already beaten a pair of top-15 teams to prove it belongs on top.
The Sooners haven't even reached the end zone in the last two Red River Rivalry games, and now the offense is struggling more than ever.
Oct. 17 vs Kentucky Wildcats: Win
Kentucky is on the rise under new coach Will Stein and just cracked the top 25 after beating Texas A&M, then South Alabama. The Wildcats also gave Alabama a scare for a half before getting blown out.
The Sooners still have more talent, and I trust Brent Venables to out-coach Stein to stop Kentucky's offense, especially since it is in Norman.
Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Loss
In August, this was expected to maybe be the biggest SEC pushover on the Sooners' schedule, but former OU offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has the Bulldogs rolling with a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback in Kamario Taylor.
Lebby has too many weapons in his potent attack, so as solid as OU's defense is, he still scores enough to get the win over his old boss. The Bulldogs also get the added benefit of being at home in Starkville.
Oct. 31 vs South Carolina Gamecocks: Win
There are no easy wins in the SEC, but this is as close as it gets, especially when you get the Gamecocks at home. Shane Beamer, another former OU OC, has his program headed in the opposite direction and might not even still be in charge by Halloween.
Nov. 7 at Florida Gators: Loss
A trip to The Swamp already seemed terrifying back in August, but now the Gators are also really good as a top-10 team under first-year coach Jon Sumrall. Turnovers have haunted the Sooners, and no matter who is at quarterback by this point, Florida's defense and that crowd will force mistakes that OU can't overcome.
Nov. 14 vs Ole Miss Rebels: Loss
Many anticipated Ole Miss to fall off with Lane Kiffin gone to LSU, but the Rebels are still CFP contenders with a stellar offense led by Trinidad Chambliss. The Sooners have never beaten Ole Miss in SEC play, and that losing streak will get pushed to three in a row.
Nov. 21 vs Texas A&M Aggies: Win
Texas A&M has been just as disappointing as the Sooners after making the CFP a year ago. Thankfully, Oklahoma does not have to go deal with the 12th Man, and that is the difference in the Sooners winning the battle of disappointments.
Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers: Win
If these predictions hold true, the Sooners will be fighting for bowl eligibility this final week of the regular season. It is hard to steal a win in Columbia, but there will be enough pride on the line for the Sooners that they will find a way in an ugly game.
Final regular-season record prediction: 6-6 (4-5 SEC play)
We thought 2026 would be more like 2025, but that record is instead the same as 2024. Eight games is still a lot of time for change, but there is just no hope right now, even after there was so much hope only a few weeks ago.
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