Predicting how much better Oklahoma's 2026 season could go with a Big 12 schedule

This week, there was a viral argument on The Morning Animal on The Sports Animal radio about what this Oklahoma team's record would be if it had Oklahoma State's schedule instead, like the Sooners' old Big 12 days. So, with a bye week to think hypothetically and the Sooners struggling at 2-2, wanting to think about better days, I thought, why not predict what this no-offense OU team could do against Big 12 competition?

The take that made this argument explode was Carey Murdock saying that the Sooners could still make the College Football Playoff if they had OSU's schedule. We'll dive more into those chances later, but this is certainly one of those hypothetical wins that the SEC faithful are famous for.

However, OU fans have learned the hard way that the level of competition every single week is on another level in the SEC. I even mentioned in a post last week that OU no longer has someone like Kansas or Iowa State to get an easy win and figure things out on an annual basis. The new Kansas is Kentucky, and the Wildcats are now a top-25 team. Easy wins no longer exist on the Sooners' schedule.

The Sooners are staring down a 4-8 season right now without pulling off an upset. The road ahead includes six ranked opponents in just eight games left. According to ESPN's College Football Power Index, OU has the No. 3 strength of schedule in the country. For comparison's sake, OSU is at No. 44, just above Alabama, actually.

OU's greatest hindrance in the SEC, especially under Brent Venables, and why it seems destined for a losing season, is that it's a one-dimensional team with an elite defense but a dormant offense. That really hasn't changed since OU was dominating the Big 12, though. The roles have just been reversed.

Lincoln Riley had a potent offense but a porous defense. The Sooners were one-dimensional then, too, but won four conference titles in a row during that era. The Big 12 was also known for its high-powered offenses back then, but has since transitioned into a defensive league.

What that reveals is that, even with an offense as awful as it is right now, OU's defense could still carry it to a lot of wins in the Big 12. The Sooners made the CFP with an SEC schedule just last year, playing that same way. Texas Tech absolutely dominated the Big 12 last year and made the CFP while also relying heavily on its defense.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll use OSU's Big 12 schedule for 2026 while still keeping the Sooners' non-conference matchups the same. Obviously, that means Bedlam is missing, but OU wins that matchup 77% of the time. There's also no Red River Rivalry, so I guess in this scenario, Texas moved on to the SEC while OU stayed put. You can even replace that Michigan loss with Texas.

So, let's get the Sooners some classic hypothetical SEC wins that will have the Big 12 faithful in denial.

• vs. UTEP: W, 51-0
• at Michigan: L, 17-10
• vs. New Mexico: W, 14-6

at West Virginia: W (instead of at Georgia)

This would undeniably be a breath of fresh mountain air compared to that trip to Athens that the Sooners just took.

Former OU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has been stellar for West Virginia, and the system definitely favors him, but OU fans saw firsthand what kind of talent he really is, and there's a reason he backed up John Mateer and even Jackson Arnold.

The Mountaineers have a dangerous ground attack that's led by Hawkins, but OU's defense would be able to shut it down. West Virginia also has the No. 84 scoring defense in the FBS, so the Sooners could put up enough points to start conference play at 1-0 instead of with a loss.

vs. UCF: W (instead of vs. Texas)

The Sooners have played much tougher defenses and have still scored just barely less than UCF against Power 4 teams. This would be a defensive showcase, and Venables almost always wins those, especially in Norman.

at Houston: W (instead of vs. Kentucky)

The Cougars really aren't bad under Willie Fritz this season, but we've seen this matchup before. The Sooners hosted Houston in 2024, which was Fritz's first year in charge, and won 16-12. The Cougars are obviously better now, but the Sooners also went 6-7 that season and were even worse than they are now. There's also no home-field advantage to speak of in Houston.

vs. Colorado: W (instead of at Mississippi State)

If you ever think things are bad under Venables, then Colorado under Deion Sanders will give you a new perspective. This is one of those easy wins that the Sooners can't enjoy in the SEC.

at Iowa State: W (instead of vs. South Carolina)

The Sooners have always dominated Iowa State with an 80–7–2 all-time record. There's nothing special about these Cyclones to buck that trend.

at Kansas State: W (instead of at Florida)

The Little Apple isn't an easy place to leave with a win, but it still doesn't compare to The Swamp in Florida. The Sooners likely won't survive a trip to Gainesville, but even with home-field advantage, Kansas State still can't score much against this OU defense. Venables would force K-State QB Avery Johnson into some mistake to hush the crowd.

vs. Texas Tech: W (instead of vs. Ole Miss)

This would by far be the toughest conference game on the Sooners' schedule. There are also a lot of similarities between these two teams that would likely create a top-15 matchup with a trip to Arlington on the line.

Both rosters are loaded with talent but are suffering from underwhelming quarterback play while relying on solid defenses. Texas Tech's offense is more productive than OU's, but the Sooners' defense is a lot better.

This one might come down to being a rock fight in Norman. That all plays into the Sooners' favor under Venables. There's no Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback, so the Sooners get a massive win this week.

at Arizona State: W (instead of vs. Texas A&M)

This could be a hard letdown, heading to Arizona State after an emotional victory over Texas Tech. But these Sun Devils were blown out by Texas A&M, 48-20. The Aggies and Sooners are pretty comparable in 2026, so that's a great measuring stick for this matchup.

vs. Kansas: W (instead of at Missouri)

It's Kansas and at home. The Jayhawks are better, but still far from good.

Final record: 11-1 (9-0 in Big 12)

That number definitely looks absurd for the Sooners we've watched the last two weeks, but breaking it down by matchup, it's hard to argue. And before Oklahoma State fans blow their top, I said before the season that the Cowboys' ceiling was 10-2 because of the talent they have with this schedule. OSU was supposed to be ruling the Big 12 by now, which is why Mike Gundy was so disappointing and had to go.

Worst-case scenario: the Sooners lose to Houston and Texas Tech. That's still 9-3 and a heck of a lot better than the 4-8 that OU is trying to fight off now. But that's the difference in a schedule that has six ranked opponents, compared to only two. Maybe results are different if both Utah and BYU are on the schedule, but even those might depend on where the game is played.

So, maybe the Sooners do make the CFP if they're still in the Big 12. They've been back since, but there's no denying life was a lot easier before the SEC.

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