Vegas has had a difficult time trying to predict what will happen when Oklahoma and Alabama meet for the second time this season on Friday night, but just hours from kickoff, it seemed at least most oddsmakers finally settled on a favorite.
The No. 8 Sooners will host No. 9 Alabama for a rematch in the first round of the College Football Playoff at 7 p.m. CT Friday at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, and leading up to the highly anticipated Round 2 between two college football heavyweights, the spread has been the smallest of any first-round pairing and favored both teams at one point.
Vegas predicts tight contest between Sooners and Crimson Tide
Despite the Sooners winning Round 1 in Tuscaloosa 23-21 and getting the rematch on their home field, they still opened as 1.5-point underdogs, according to FanDuel, when the CFP bracket and matchup was first unveiled on Dec. 7. That stuck for every major sportsbook until BetMGM last week on Dec. 11 was the first to favor OU by 1.5 points, but only briefly.
Then, on Wednesday, nearly all of Vegas suddenly flipped the script and made the Sooners 1.5-point favorites after being underdogs the nearly two weeks prior. As of Friday just hours before game time, that was still mostly the case, according to BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars and FanDuel. Bet365 had the spread closer at just a point, still in OU's favor, while BetRivers had the matchup as a pick’em on Friday.
Notably, the Sooners were 6.5-point underdogs ahead of their victorious trip to Alabama on Nov. 15.
Of the four first-round CFP pairings, OU-Bama has the smallest spread as the only two playing on Friday night. The next smallest margin is No. 7 Texas A&M as a 3.5-point favorite over No. 10 Miami on Saturday. No. 6 Ole Miss is favored by 17.5 points against No. 11 Tulane, while No. 5 Oregon is a 20.5-point favorite over No. 12 James Madison.
Despite the Sooners now favored to get past Bama in the first round, they still have the third-worse odds to get through the bracket and win it all. Only Group of Five participants Tulane and James Madison have worse odds, according to every major sportsbook.
OU's title odds, according to FanDuel, sit at +5000 as of Friday. Bama had better odds at +3000. No.2 Ohio State had the best odds at +200.
Prediction: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 17
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.