It's actually going to happen.
Injured Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was upgraded to probable on Thursday's SEC Availability Report after being questionable on Wednesday. Probable gives Mateer a 75% chance of playing, meaning the No. 6 Sooners will likely have their starting quarterback against unranked Texas at 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday in Dallas.
Will John Mateer play in Red River Rivalry?
Mateer's status on Thursday was the closest OU fans have gotten to real confirmation that Mateer might actually return for the Red River Rivalry, as most reports to that point basically just said it was possible. There's certainly a difference between possible and probable. Information for SEC Availability Reports also come straight from OU's medical staff, not unknown sources like recent reports have.
John Mateer upgraded to probable on Thursday’s SEC Availability Report before the Red River Rivalry. Yeah, he’s playing. pic.twitter.com/JUUBNnT0GJ
— Stormin In Norman (@StorminInNorman) October 10, 2025
Just over an hour before Thursday's report was released, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that whether or not Mateer plays could come down to pain and gripping a football. Thamel also noted that Mateer had "practiced some," even though OU head coach Brent Venables said during Tuesday's weekly press conference that Mateer hadn't participated in any "good-on-good work," which Venables said would be necessary for Mateer to play on Saturday.
Venables, though, has been extremely tight-lipped about Mateer's status, which now looks more like smoke and mirrors ahead of a rivalry game. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian also said on Monday during his weekly press conference that the Longhorns were preparing to face Mateer despite Venables' comments insinuating otherwise.
If it comes down to toughness, then there should be even more confidence that Mateer will go out there on Saturday. He broke a bone in his right hand in the first quarter against Auburn on Sept 20, but still finished the game and even scored the game-winning touchdown with a diving run. Mateer then needed surgery during the Sooners' bye week and missed their last game against Kent State.
The Red River Rivalry will be only 17 days since Dr. Steven Shin performed surgery on Mateer's right hand. That would shatter initial expectations, with early reports saying Mateer would miss about a month, or at least multiple weeks.
OU wide receiver Keontez Lewis was also still listed as questionable on Thursday after having the same status Wednesday. Unless Mateer suffers a setback, Lewis' status is now the only unknown OU fans will be monitoring on Friday.