Oklahoma’s playoff odds explode after Alabama upset shakes up CFP picture

The odds are in the Sooners' favor.
Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

There's no longer hope the Oklahoma Sooners make the College Football Playoff -- it's now expected.

Last week, the No. 11 Sooners were the first team left out of the predicted 12-team playoff field with two losses and still in need of another statement win to propel them up in the rankings. This week, though, when the committee checks the Sooners' resume on Tuesday, they will have all of the qualifications of a playoff team.

Sooners' College Football Playoff chances solidified after Alabama upset

The Sooners' chances at making the CFP, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index, skyrocketed to 49.2% on Sunday after upsetting No. 4 Alabama 23-21 on Saturday. The Crimson Tide was OU's last major challenge with home games against Missouri (7-3) and LSU (6-4) left, which, considering ESPN's FPI is a predictive model, also boosted the Sooners' playoff percentage.

On Saturday morning, before taking down mighty Alabama and no one really giving them a chance to, the Sooners' CFP chances were at 23.6%. It was clear they needed to get past Bama in Tuscaloosa and win out to get in, and the FPI gave them a 12.3% chance to accomplish that.

But after refusing to die and taking down a top-5 team on the road with just two home games left before Selection Sunday, the Sooners' chances at winning out now sit at 44.3%. Nothing is guaranteed in the SEC, even when hosting two struggling teams, but both matchups are expected wins for Brent Venables' team.

The Sooners' projected win total also elevated to 9.3-2.7, compared to 8.6-3.4 before Saturday's upset. A 9-2 team that got through a schedule like the Sooners is certainly deserving of one of the 12-team playoffs.

The odds are now in the Sooners' favor to play in the College Football Playoff.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations