Sooners are one of only 18 serious title contenders based on this talent metric

CBS Sports' Bud Elliott invented a talent metric to measure national championship chances that's been perfect so far, and the Oklahoma Sooners are one of 18 teams deemed serious contenders for 2025.

The Sooners had the ninth-highest percentage at 70% based on CBS Sports' Blue-Chip Ratio, which measures the percentage of how many four- and five-star recruits made up a program's last four recruiting cycles based on the 247Sports Composite. For the first time ever, all four measured cycles happened under Brent Venables at OU.

CBS Sports' Blue-Chip Ratio has OU among national contenders

Elliott is all in that it's about the Jimmys and Joes, and his formula hasn't failed him yet in 14 seasons. According to Elliott, "It's one of the best tools we have for identifying which teams have the baseline level of talent required to win it all."

"To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes," Elliott wrote. ...

"This has held true for every modern national champion. And while recruiting rankings aren't perfect, they are extremely effective -- especially when taken in the aggregate. And they are only getting better with the advancements in technology and data. A decade ago, for instance, it was not uncommon for about half of first-round picks to have been four- or five-stars. Now? It's routinely 80%+."

Elliott does not factor in transfers because he believes championship teams are still structured with elite high school talent because a team hasn't won a national championship by building through the Transfer Portal yet. Even though some of the Sooners' biggest stars are transfers, if transfers were included, their Blue-Chip Ratio would actually drop to 56%, just barely above the threshold.

No team has ever won a national title with a Blue-Chip Ratio less than 50%, and Ohio State just had the highest ever at 90%. This season, 18 teams are above that threshold, including nine from the SEC. Alabama and Ohio State are tied for the highest Blue-Chip Ratios in 2025 at 89%. Georgia and Texas A&M are also above 80%.

Of the 18 teams on the list of serious contenders, six are on OU's schedule this season, including Alabama, Texas, LSU, Auburn, Michigan and Tennessee. Strength of schedule is just one thing a talent metric doesn't factor that it takes to win it all.

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