It was a stressful time for Oklahoma men’s basketball fans last year as the Sooners were on the NCAA Tournament bubble throughout the season before finally sneaking in, but fans would prefer that anticipation over not having to care at all.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi on Tuesday released his latest Bracketology and NCAA Tournament field projection with a month down of the 2025-26 men’s basketball season. This was a must-read update for Sooner Nation last season, especially considering OU was still undefeated at this point last year, but the Sooners were nowhere to be found and not even on bubble watch this early in the season this time.
Joe Lunardi already has Oklahoma men’s basketball completely off NCAA Tournament radar
The most worrisome part of this update is that the Sooners haven’t even started SEC play yet, which is by far the most grueling part of their schedule. The Sooners are 5-2 through the first month of the season and have fallen short against almost every worthy opponent.
The Sooners just notched their biggest win of the season so far with a 75-74 victory over Marquette at a neutral site in Chicago on Friday. It was still just a Quad 3 win, though, but also the Sooners’ only victory that wasn’t in a Quad 4 matchup at home. It was originally a Quad 1 win, but was downgraded after a new set of NET rankings,
Before then, the Sooners lost to Gonzaga 83-68 and Nebraska 105-99 in Quad 1 meetings and their only other matchups that weren’t Quad 4.
More opportunities for resume-boosting wins will come, though, and soon, but that could also mean more losses to challenging opponents that could bury the Sooners on the list of tournament teams.
Next, the Sooners play on the road at Wake Forest on Tuesday night as part of the ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge, which will be an opportunity at their first Quad 1 win. After that, based on the current NET rankings, OU won’t have another Quad 1 matchup until Jan. 17 against Alabama in Norman.
Once the New Year tips off SEC play, there won’t be another Quad 4 matchup or easy win left on the Sooners’ schedule, so that means Porter Moser either quickly turns things around, or the hole will be too deep to dig out of without another miraculous late winning streak like last season.