The Oklahoma Sooners didn't even step on a football field last week, but their chances at making the College Football Playoff still somehow took a hit, at least according to ESPN's College Football Power Index.
As of Monday entering Week 12, the Sooners' chances at making the CFP were at 31.9%, which was a fall from 36.1% this time last week before OU's bye. That also included a 1.8% chance at making a run to the National Championship Game.
ESPN's FPI lowers Oklahoma's CFP chances after bye week
The Sooners' most recent 31.9% CFP odds were the 15th-best in the country, which would still leave them outside of the 12-team field. OU's low chances at getting in mostly has to do with its loaded three-game slate to conclude the season that includes at No. 4 Alabama, Missouri and LSU. OU basically has to win out to make the CFP, but ESPN's FPI gives the Sooners only an 11.9% chance of accomplishing that.
However, if the Sooners go into Tuscaloosa on Saturday and upset the Crimson Tide, then their chances of both winning out and making the CFP will catapult likely well above 50%. ESPN's FPI gives OU a 28.4% chance of beating Alabama, though, but the odds were stacked even more against the Sooners last year before they took down Bama in Norman.
Teams ahead of OU in CFP chances include Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas, BYU, South Florida, James Madison and Georgia Tech, respectively. It's not that ESPN's FPI believes all of those teams are better than the Sooners, especially the likes of South Florida and James Madison, but those programs just have better paths to the CFP with easier schedules and a solid shot at getting in as a champion from an undeserving conference.
These odds change almost daily, though, and all of the Sooners' real chances rely fully on Saturday's outcome against Alabama.