Oklahoma already on Joe Lunardi's NCAA Tournament bubble before 2025-26 season tips off

Bubble watch begins early.
NATE BILLINGS/FOR THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oklahoma made its first NCAA Tournament appearance in four years last season and first under head coach Porter Moser, and the Sooners are poised to make a return appearance in 2026. ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi, however, believes the 2025-26 edition of Oklahoma men's basketball has it in it to make it back to March Madness for a second season, but the Sooners are going to have to prove it on the court.

In the last preseason edition of ESPN Bracketology before the season officially tips off next week, Lunardi projected the Sooners as a bubble team and the first team left out of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Indiana, Clemson and Texas A&M joined Oklahoma in the group designated as the "first four out." The last four teams to make it into the tournament, according to Lunardi's projections, were Marquette, Washington, Boise State and Villanova.

ESPN Bracketology has Sooners as first team out of NCAA Tournament

At this early stage of the season, Lunardi projected 11 SEC teams to make the NCAA Tournament this season, led by reigning national champion and projected 1-seed Florida, 2-seed Kentucky and 3-seed Tennessee. A year ago, a record 14 of 16 SEC teams made the tournament and two, Florida and Auburn, made it all the way to the Final Four

Based on Lunardi's final preseason projection, the SEC and Big Ten would both send 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament at season's end, followed by the Big 12 with eight teams, and the ACC and Big East with five each.

Oklahoma finished with a 20-14 record last season and earned a berth in the NCAA Tournament as the 9-seed in the West Region. The Sooners lost 67-59 to No. 8 UConn in the opening round of the tournament.

A number of college basketball experts believe this could be Moser's best Oklahoma team despite the departure of seven players from last year's team, including all five starters.

The Sooners tip off the 2025-26 season on Monday, hosting St. Francis at Lloyd Noble Center.

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