ESPN analytics and several other national media sources have Oklahoma as the sixth best team in the SEC entering the 2026 college football season, but those same sources rank the Sooners among the top 15 teams in the nation.
That is a widely accepted reflection of the power and talent richness of the teams in the SEC and the blood bath of a gauntlet teams in that conference have to go through week in and week out to compete for a conference title, let alone a chance for a national championship.
Despite winning 10 games a year ago and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff, most college football experts and analysts expect the going to be much tougher for the Sooners in the coming season, even with a team that is expected to be much improved, particularly on offense.
The principal reason for that preseason assessment for Oklahoma Team 132 is the brutal front-loaded schedule the Sooners face to open the 2026 season.
Oklahoma opens the season on a Friday night, Sept. 4 against the University of Texas-El Paso. Three of its next four games are at Michigan, at Georgia, followed by the annual Red River clash against archrival Texas in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Sooners' remaining seven regular-season games are no piece of cake, either. Overall this season, Oklahoma faces nine teams ranked in the top 25 of ESPN's 2026 College Football Power Index.
There is little question that Oklahoma's 2026 schedule is difficult. That's the way of the world in the SEC. According to ESPN Analytics, 11 of the top 12 teams in the country with the most difficult schedules in the 2026 season are from the SEC. Ohio State, out of the Big Ten and ranked No. 1 in the preseason FPI, is the only non-SEC in that top-12 strength of schedule ranking.
How Oklahoma is able to successfully navigate through its arduous schedule will certainly be a key factor in whether the Sooners are pretenders or legitimate contenders for a playoff spot again in 2026.
Getting "good" John Mateer will be a huge key
John Mateer returns at quarterback for Oklahoma for a second season. Mateer, of course, is the central piece, in what most experts expect will be an improved Sooner offense this season. The former Washington State transfer, who followed Ben Arbuckle, his Wazzou offensive coordinator, to OU, had to shoulder most of the Oklahoma offensive load a year ago because of the lack of production and consistency in the supporting cast around him. And to compound that trouble, Mateer himself played most of the season with a broken thumb.
Mateer was criticized for trying to do too much by himself to overcome all the offensive obstacles, including not reading defensive adjustments well enough, accuracy issues and making too many bad decisions with the ball.
The Sooner starting quarterback has seriously worked this offseason to correct the physical, mechanical and mental issues that negatively affected his performance last season. And he's also added some weight and gotten stronger in his upper and lower body, which should make him even more dangerous for opposing defenses to contend with at the quarterback position in the coming season.
On3's Chris Low is one writer who believes Mateer is going to make a big difference for Oklahoma this season. Low ranked Mateer the fourth best quarterback in the SEC heading into the 2026 season, behind Trindad Chambliss of Ole Miss, Arch Manning at Texas and Georgia's Gunner Stockton.
"If he stays healthy, I think Mateer makes the biggest jump," Low said this week on the Paul Finebaum Show. "They've done a nice job of surrounding him with better players."
OU needs to run the ball...better
Oklahoma's run game was virtually nonexistent last season. Jayden Ott was brought in from California and was expected to be a prime contributor, but for whatever reason he turned out to be a complete bust. The Sooners relied on young running backs Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson, but both suffered injuries during the season and gained fewer than 500 net rushing yards.
The Sooner run game has to be better in 2026 and it should be with a more experienced offensive line coming back this season and a couple of talented additions in true freshman Jonathan Hatton, a top-four running back in the 2026 class nationally, and Colorado State transfer Lloyd Avant, who the OU coaching staff is very high on.
A more talented tight-end room should also help the offensive line's run-blocking ability and enable the Sooner running backs to break off runs of greater than three yards a pop, which is what the inept OU running game averaged last season.
The return of Isaiah Sategna, the Sooners' top receiver and Mateer's prime target a year ago, is huge. Plus Oklahoma has added to its receiving weapons with transfers Parker Livingstone from Texas and Trell Harris from Virginia. Livingstone had 516 receiving yards and six touchdowns as a Longhorn freshman last season, and Harris had 847 receiving yards and five touchdown catches as a junior at Virginia.
The depth is also there at wide receiver with the return of redshirt junior Jer'Michael Carter and sophomore Elijah Thomas, both of whom could have a breakout season. And keep a watchful eye on 6-foot-3 true freshman Jayden Petit, the No. 18 wide receiver in the 2026 class nationally.
The Oklahoma offense ranked 92nd in total offense 354.3 yards per game) a year ago and 79th in scoring offense (26.2 points per game), and an even worse 113th in rushing offense (118.5).
There is every reason to believe that OU's offensive balance and production will make a dramatic leap forward in the 2026 season. If that comes to fruition, and the Brent Venables-led Sooner defense remains at an elite level (it was sixth in total defense and seventh in scoring defense in 2025, there is no reason that Oklahoma shouldn't be a legitimate CFP contender in 2026.
On3's J.D. Pickell, on his podcast, The Hard Count, said Oklahoma's championship potential in 2026 rests on its defense remaining elite and the offense taking a major step forward. "If this comes true that they have the best defense in college football, and the offense holds up their end of the deal, it's going to be a movie in Norman, man," Pickell said.
On paper, it all looks pretty solid. If that translates to the playing field, it should be a fun and exciting season for Sooner fans.
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