Oklahoma gets cold reality check in 2025 CFP prediction

There's at least a chance.
Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oklahoma is one of only five teams to have made four or more appearances in the 11-year history of the College Football Playoff. But the Sooners are also the only one of the five not to have carted home at least two national championship trophies.

Only 12 teams ultimately make it into the College Football Playoff under its current structure, but a lot more teams vie for one of those select playoff spots over the course of the season.

According to the ESPN Allstate Playoff Predictor, 32 college teams have at least a 10% chance to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. The Oklahoma Sooners were No. 23 on the list with an 18.4% chance, but with only a .8 chance of winning the national championship.

OU one of 32 teams with chance to make 2025 College Football Playoff

The Playoff Predictor computer gave OU archrival and fellow SEC member Texas an 84% chance of making this year's CFP field and the best chance to win the national title at 24%. Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama were next in line, all with greater than a 60% chance of making the playoff and at least a 10% chance of winning it all.

Eleven SEC teams (out of 16) were among the 32 teams the Playoff Predictor said has a chance of making the playoff this season, and eight of the 32 are on the Sooners' 2025 schedule.

As Big 12 champion, Oklahoma made four playoff appearances (2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019) in the first six years of the College Football Playoff. The Sooners are the only team with that many playoff appearances not to make it past the first game.

The list of 32 will shake up as the season wears on, but come November, the true 2025 CFP contenders will become much shorter and a lot more clear. Looking at Oklahoma's 2025 schedule, it appears that practically every week could be considered a playoff game.

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