That Oklahoma win total for 2026 suddenly doesn't look like as easy of a bet now.
After months of Vegas setting the Sooners' projected 2026 win total at 7.5, FanDuel has now bumped it to 8.5 with just over two weeks left before OU kicks off the season against UTEP on Friday, Sept. 4, in Norman. That 7.5 number was enticing, so betting college football fans tried to take advantage of it with faith in the Sooners, which likely prompted the jump before the season gets going.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Sooners' difficult schedule makes betting the over feel less guaranteed after change in Vegas
For those who didn’t bet that enticing over early, now you have to decide if you’re confident enough in one more win for the Sooners to get them to nine victories instead of eight. One more win doesn’t seem like much on paper, but 8-4 and 9-3 could be the difference in the Sooners returning to the College Football Playoff or not. Betting on nine wins is also a lot of belief in a college football team.
Any expert who doubts Oklahoma, including Paul Finebaum, points out that there aren’t many easy wins at all on the Sooners’ schedule, which is expected to be one of the most difficult in the country. That’s a fair argument and there’s no denying OU was dealt a brutal start, but looking only at the schedule would dismiss how good the Sooners actually are. OU also navigated a grueling schedule last year and still came out of the regular season at 10-2. Now, the Sooners should be even better in 2026.
The Sooners will have to take on three potential top-15 teams in their first five games, and all of those matchups are away from Norman. After an easy opener against UTEP, they travel to Ann Arbor to play No. 16 Michigan. FanDuel currently has OU as a small 1.5-point underdog to the Wolverines, with home-field advantage likely giving Michigan the edge.
OU can somewhat breathe Week 3 against New Mexico, but even the Lobos received votes in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll. The Sooners then have one of the most challenging sets of back-to-back games than anyone with a trip to No. 3 Georgia and the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against No. 5 Texas. There’s at least a bye week to separate the daunting matchups.
A likely worst-case scenario would have the Sooners at 2-3 at that point if they lose all three ranked matchups. From then, if you bet the 8.5 over on the Sooners, you can’t afford another loss with seven SEC games still ahead. If it was still at 7.5, Oklahoma would have two losses still to give.
The Sooners’ schedule lightens up after the treacherous start. There are three teams still left that were ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll with No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 8 Texas A&M and No. 25 Missouri. OU gets the benefit of having Ole Miss and Texas A&M at home, and many also predict, including myself, that none of those three teams will really be as good as what their preseason rankings suggest.
Regardless, ranked teams or not, there are no guaranteed wins in the SEC, especially with trips to Mississippi State and Florida. Either Kentucky or South Carolina could also surprise this season. It's easy to be confident the Sooners go at least 3-1 against those squads, but a perfect 4-0?
So, the Sooners’ schedule won’t be quite as difficult as most predict, but it’s also far from easy. It all just comes down to how much faith a bettor has in the Sooners, no matter who’s on the other sideline or where the win total is set. Good luck.
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