The biggest benefit of Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer falling short of monster individual expectations this season was the Sooners at least likely having a QB1 returning next year for the first time since Dillon Gabriel in 2023, but Mateer's door to the NFL might not be sealed as tightly as fans thought.
As a redshirt junior, entering the 2026 NFL Draft is an option for Mateer, but after an underwhelming season, most believed that option had been tabled until 2027. However, ESPN's NFL Draft expert Mel Kiper Jr.'s recent rankings revealed Mateer might actually still have a decision to make at the end of the season, even if most fans don't think he's actually ready for the next level.
ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. ranks John Mateer as a top-5 QB prospect in 2026 NFL Draft
With the regular season over and the College Football Playoff ahead, Kiper has Mateer ranked as the No. 4 quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft class. Mateer was behind Oregon's Dante Moore, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Alabama's Ty Simpson, respectively, in Kiper's most recent rankings.
Those below Mateer in Kiper's rankings included Duke's Darian Mensah, Miami's Carson Beck, Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State's Drew Allar, respectively, to round out the top 10. USC's Jayden Maiava was at No. 9, but it's already known he's returning for next season.
Even as a top-5 QB, though, Kiper still doesn't have Mateer as a top-25 overall prospect with the likelihood of going in the first round. After Moore and Mendoza at Nos.1 and 2, there's not another QB in the first-round mix, based on Kiper's rankings.
The number of quarterbacks going in the first round has recently dwindled, with just two in 2025 after a record six in 2024, then three in 2023 and only one in 2022. Unless several teams are desperate for a quarterback, Mateer's draft stock could still be low enough for him to use his final year of eligibility, but he's already made it clear that's not a decision he's making until after a potential playoff run, which could also boost Mateer's stock.