Had Oklahoma's game at Georgia this weekend been played three weeks earlier, it would have been the No. 11 Sooners vs. No. 3 Georgia, a matchup of two highly ranked teams. It probably also would have been a natural destination point for ESPN College GameDay.
It's still an important enough game for national television, but the competitive nature of the matchup has taken a divergent turn as a result of Oklahoma's unexpected and troublesome offensive struggles the past two weeks.
The Sooners (2-1) might not have been able to beat Georgia on their best day this season, but the way things look right now, Saturday's game has more the makings of a potential blowout than a tightly fought game, despite Oklahoma's outstanding defense.
Of course, there is always the chance, albeit minuscule at best, that Oklahoma could surprise the college football world and upset the mighty Dawgs. A better chance if the game were being played in Norman, but still within the realm of all things are possible. Sooner fans don't need to be reminded of what happened in 2017 in Columbus, Ohio, when Oklahoma went into Ohio Stadium and shocked No. 2 Ohio State 31-16.
The Sooners have actually won their last three true road games against top-5 opponents, including Alabama just last season.
What do the Sooners need to do to pull off an upset?
For Oklahoma to pull off what most fans would consider an impossible task, a number of factors would need to come together that haven't come close to coalescing in the past two games, and against much lesser competition than the Sooners will face in Georgia.
First, the Sooners absolutely have to be able to run the ball, especially so on first down, to make second and third down more manageable, with the overriding goal of keeping the chains moving and keeping the offense on the field.
That not only benefits the Sooners offensively, but it also keeps the high-scoring Georgia offense on the sidelines. Bottom line: If Oklahoma cannot run the football -- and they are going up against the country's third-best defense against the run (45.7 yards allowed per game) -- the Sooners have zero chance of beating Georgia.
John Mateer must have not only his best game of the season, but the best he has had at Oklahoma. He must not hold the ball too long, find open receivers and get the ball to them in catchable form (not underthrown or overthrown) and avoid costly mistakes (that is, protect the football). He must also be part of the running game, which unfortunately is his strength, but not as the main ball carrier.
The Sooners are going to be without left tackle Michael Fasusi, their best offensive lineman, for a third straight game. Injuries again have taken a toll on the Oklahoma offensive line. The O-line play in the past two games has been as bad as it's been the past couple of seasons.
Everything to do with the offense, whether it's Oklahoma or any other team, starts up front on the offensive line. Mateer and the Sooner running backs may not represent the ideal answers at their respective positions, but if the offensive line cannot run block or keep constant pressure off the quarterback, it doesn't really matter who you have at the other skill positions on offense.
The Sooner offense needs to deliver the first punch and score early against Georgia, and keep the gas pedal pressed down. Georgia is 58-3 at home in the time that Kirby Smart has been head coach. Preventing the Bulldogs from taking control early quiets the crowd, which will be in excess of 90,000 for this game, and helps mitigate the home-field factor to some degree.
The Bulldogs have outscored their three opponents this season 56-0 in the opening quarter. The OU offense has scored just 14 first-half points total in its last two games. If Oklahoma is going to make a game of it on Saturday, the Sooners can least afford to fall behind early and be forced to play catch-up. That's a no-win proposition against as good a defense as Georgia's.
The defense, led by head coach Brent Venables, is Oklahoma's strength and biggest asset in Saturday's game with Georgia. The Bulldogs lead all FBS teams through three games, averaging 59.3 points a game. They likely won't score that many against the Sooner defense, but Georgia teams under Smart haven't needed half that many points to outscore their opponents and come out on top. Georgia is a dominant 87-3 under Smart when it scores 30 or more points, and 113-12 when it scores 20 or more.
From an historical perspective, the Bulldogs are most vulnerable when they score 20 or fewer points. That has happened 17 times in the 10 seasons Smart has been at Georgia. The Bulldogs are 8-9 in those games.
The Oklahoma defense is allowing 7.7 points a game this season, but keeping Georgia off the scoreboard could be the Sooners' toughest challenge of the season. The Bulldogs have reached the red zone 19 times this season; they've scored touchdowns on 17 of those possessions.
The one thing Oklahoma cannot afford is to get into a high-scoring shootout against the Bulldogs. The Sooners have scored as many as 33 points just once in 16 games against SEC opponents in the two seasons Oklahoma has been a member of that conference.
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