It may not be as bad as it seems says ESPN analytics about OU, looking at bigger picture
By Chip Rouse
The 2024 college football season has been difficult and demanding for Oklahoma Team 130 with the Sooners in danger of finishing with a losing record for the second time in three seasons under head coach Brent Venables.
For the Sooners, who are used to winning and winning big with an offense that typically is second to none, their first season as a member of the uber-competitive SEC has been filled with one of the country's most difficult schedules and mounting questions and issues as the season has progressed.
With all of the issues that have engulfed the program this season, it may seem a bit surprising that Oklahoma sits at 5-5 overall with two games remaining in the regular-season schedule, but the 1-5 record in the conference and games against ranked conference opponents the next two weekends tells the grim story that has many Sooner fans emotionally in the dumps.
In a season like this one, when the negatives tend to overwhelm the positives, it helps soothe some of the sting of the season when something comes out -- right or wrong -- suggesting the situation may not be as bad as it seems. That was the case on Monday when ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly released his weekly SP+ rankings (subscription required).
Connelly defines SP+ as "a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is intended to be predictive and forward facing. It is not a resume ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling."
While it is not surprising that Oklahoma is not ranked among the nation's top-25 teams (although the Sooners began the season at No. 16 in both the Associated Press and Coaches polls), it may surprise you to learn that the ESPN SP+ weekly analytics have the Sooners ranked No. 27. between No. 26 Colorado and No. 28 Virginia Tech.
Former Stormin in Norman contributor Aaron Gelvin suggests that OU's higher than expected SP+ ranking could be a result of the Sooners 15-point win over Tulane earlier this season. The Green Wave are 9-2 this season and one of the best teams among Group of Five teams. Additionally, South Carolina is much better than expected at the beginning of the season, and Tennessee, Texas and Ole Miss have been ranked all season. All were on Oklahoma's 2024 schedule and defeated the Sooners.
Based on these results, should the Sooners deliver a competitive performance in their final two games, their SP+ rating could remain in a respectable range despite what by Oklahoma standards likely will go down as a highly unsatisfactory 2024 season.